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Scenarios of Land Use and Land Cover Change and Their Multiple Impacts on Natural Capital in Tanzania

机译：坦桑尼亚土地利用和覆盖变化的情景及其对自然资本的多重影响

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摘要

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation plus the conservation of forest carbon stocks, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries (REDD+) requires information on land-use and land-cover changes (LULCCs) and carbon emission trends from the past to the present and into the future. Here, we use the results of participatory scenario development in Tanzania to assess the potential interacting impacts on carbon stock, biodiversity and water yield of alternative scenarios where REDD+ is or is not effectively implemented by 2025, a green economy (GE) scenario and a business as usual (BAU) scenario, respectively. Under the BAU scenario, LULCCs will cause 296 million tonnes of carbon (MtC) national stock loss by 2025, reduce the extent of suitable habitats for endemic and rare species (mainly in encroached protected mountain forests) and change water yields. In the GE scenario, national stock loss decreases to 133 MtC. In this scenario, consistent LULCC impacts occur within small forest patches with high carbon density, water catchment capacity and biodiversity richness. Opportunities for maximizing carbon emission reductions nationally are largely related to sustainable woodland management, but also contain trade-offs with biodiversity conservation and changes in water availability.
机译：减少森林砍伐和森林退化造成的排放，以及保护森林碳储量，森林的可持续管理和增加发展中国家的森林碳储量（REDD +），都需要有关土地利用和土地覆盖变化（LULCC）的信息以及来自从过去到现在，再到未来。在这里，我们使用坦桑尼亚参与式情景开发的结果来评估在2025年之前或未有效实施REDD +的替代情景，绿色经济（GE）情景和企业对碳储量，生物多样性和水产量的潜在相互作用影响像往常一样（BAU）。在BAU情景下，到2025年，LULCC将造成2.96亿吨碳（MtC）国家库存减少，减少特有和稀有物种（主要是在受保护的高山森林中）的适宜生境，并改变水的产量。在通用电气的情况下，全国库存损失减少到133 MtC。在这种情况下，在高碳密度，集水能力和生物多样性丰富的小片森林中发生了一致的LULCC影响。在全国范围内最大程度地减少碳排放的机会在很大程度上与可持续的林地管理有关，但也包括与生物多样性保护和水供应变化之间的权衡。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental Conservation》 |2019年第1期|17-24|共8页
  • 作者

    Capitani Claudia; van Soesbergen Arnout; Mukama Kusaga; Malugu Isaac; Mbilinyi Boniface; Chamuya Nurdin; Kempen Bas; Malimbwi Rogers; Mant Rebecca; Munishi Panteleo; Njana Marco Andrew; Ortmann Antonia; Platts Philip J.; Runsten Lisen; Sassen Marieke; Sayo Philippina; Shirima Deo; Zahabu Elikamu; Burgess Neil D.; Marchant Rob;

  • 作者单位

    Univ York, Environm Dept, Wentworth Way, York, N Yorkshire, England;

    World Conservat Monitoring Ctr, United Nat Environm Programme, Cambridge, Cambs, England|Kings Coll London, London, England;

    WWF Tanzania Country, Forest Program, Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania;

    WWF Tanzania Country, Forest Program, Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania;

    Sokoine Univ Agr, Dept Agr Engn & Land Nanning, Morogoro, Tanzania;

    Minist Nat Resources & Tourism, Forest & Beekeeping Div, Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania;

    ISR Wand Soli Informat, Wageningen, Gelderland, Netherlands;

    Sokoine Univ Agr, Dept Forest Mensurat & Management, Morogoro, Tanzania;

    World Conservat Monitoring Ctr, United Nat Environm Programme, Cambridge, Cambs, England;

    Sokoine Univ Agr, Forest Biol, Morogoro, Tanzania;

    Sokoine Univ Agr, NCMC, Morogoro, Tanzania;

    United Nat Uganda Off, Food & Agr Org, Kampala, Uganda;

    Univ York, Environm Dept, Wentworth Way, York, N Yorkshire, England;

    World Conservat Monitoring Ctr, United Nat Environm Programme, Cambridge, Cambs, England;

    World Conservat Monitoring Ctr, United Nat Environm Programme, Cambridge, Cambs, England;

    WWF Tanzania Country, Forest Program, Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania;

    Sokoine Univ Agr, Dept Ecosyst & Conservat, Morogoro, Tanzania;

    Sokoine Univ Agr, Fac Forestry & Nat Conservat, Morogoro, Tanzania;

    World Conservat Monitoring Ctr, United Nat Environm Programme, Cambridge, Cambs, England|Univ Copenhagen, Ctr Macroecoi Evolut & Climate, Nat Hist Museum, Copenhagen, Denmark;

    Univ York, Environm Dept, Wentworth Way, York, N Yorkshire, England;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    REDD; ecosystem services trade-offs; decision-making; participatory GIS; carbon; biodiversity; water;

    机译：REDD;生态系统服务的权衡;决策;参与式GIS;碳;生物多样性;水;

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