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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental earth sciences >Characteristic analyses, simulations and predictions of land use in poor mountainous cities: a case study in the central area of Chengde County, China
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Characteristic analyses, simulations and predictions of land use in poor mountainous cities: a case study in the central area of Chengde County, China

机译：贫困山区城市土地利用特征分析，模拟与预测-以中国承德县中部地区为例

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摘要

Mountainous areas account for approximately 69% of the land area in China, and these areas are prone to poverty. Thus, analyzing the land use characteristics and conducting simulations and prediction studies of poor cities in mountainous areas are important research topics. The land use change processes and characteristics in Chengde County, Hebei Province, China were analyzed in this paper based on the spatial distributions and temporal changes of land use types. Fourteen driving factors and five land use types were used in performing binary logistic regression analysis. The dynamic conversion of land use and its effects model was used to simulate the land use distributions, which were further simulated under three scenarios in 2021: natural growth, ecological conservation and accelerated development. The results show that the ecological conservation scenario optimized the land use distribution and effectively protected the environment, thereby increasing the suitability of future development. Based on the research results, this paper concludes that the correct development directions in the future should include preparing accurate and effective policies, promoting industrial structure reform, driving economic transformations and improvements, and improving the land use efficiency. The experimental results provide significant technical support for preparing and revising land use plans in poor mountainous cities.
机译：山区约占中国国土面积的69％，这些地区容易贫困。因此，分析山区土地利用特征并进行山区贫困城市的模拟和预测研究是重要的研究课题。基于土地利用类型的空间分布和时间变化，分析了河北省承德县的土地利用变化过程和特征。二元逻辑回归分析使用了十四种驱动因素和五种土地利用类型。利用土地利用的动态转换及其影响模型来模拟土地利用的分布，并在2021年的三种情况下进一步模拟土地利用：自然增长，生态保护和加速发展。结果表明，生态保护情景优化了土地利用分布，有效保护了环境，从而增加了未来发展的适用性。根据研究结果，本文认为，正确的发展方向应包括制定准确有效的政策，促进产业结构改革，推动经济转型和改善，提高土地利用效率。实验结果为贫困山区城市制定和修订土地利用计划提供了重要的技术支持。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental earth sciences》 |2018年第16期|585.1-585.17|共17页
  • 作者

    Zhai Haoran; Tang Xinming; Wang Guanghui; Li Jiayu; Liu Keming;

  • 作者单位

    Shandong Univ Sci & Technol, Geomat Coll, Qingdao 266590, Peoples R China;

    Shandong Univ Sci & Technol, Geomat Coll, Qingdao 266590, Peoples R China;

    Natl Adm Surveying Mapping & Geoinformat, Satellite Surveying & Mapping Applicat Ctr, Beijing 100048, Peoples R China;

    Natl Adm Surveying Mapping & Geoinformat, Satellite Surveying & Mapping Applicat Ctr, Beijing 100048, Peoples R China;

    Dev & Reform Bur Chengde Cty, Chengde 067400, Peoples R China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Land use; Dyna-CLUE model; Dynamic simulation; Poor mountainous city; Scenarios;

    机译：土地利用;Dyna-CLUE模型;动态模拟;山区山区贫困;情景;

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