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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental earth sciences >Quantitative assessment on the influence of rainfall on landslides in Jianshi County of Qing River Basin, China
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Quantitative assessment on the influence of rainfall on landslides in Jianshi County of Qing River Basin, China

机译：中国清江流域建始县降雨对滑坡影响的定量评估

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摘要

Rainfall is one of the main inducing factors of landslide disaster. Based on many years of landslide monitoring data and rainfall data of Jianshi County, 66 landslides occurred from 2002 to 2008 were chosen, which is about 52.38 % of the total 126 landslides in the whole area. There are 13 landslides with deformation or displacement over twice, this is about 19.70 % of 66 landslides chosen. According to analysis the correlation between rainfall and landslides with the geostatistics method, the critical rainfall and effective rainfall are determined. Using the Bayes statistical inference model to improve the probability model, the probabilities of landslide early warning system zones are determined. The landslide early warning model is established on basis of the result of landslide susceptibility, rainfall model and probabilistic model with ArcGIS software. The probability value (T) is from 0.002168 to 0.909062. The whole county is divided into four grades of landslide early warning system. The data of second deformation or displacement of 13 landslides induced by the rainfall are used to validate the model. Totally, the result of landslide early warning model is scientific and reliable. The rainfall data of eight landslides are in line with the model and in the range of level IV/V. The accuracy is about 61.54 % according to the relationship between landslide and rainfall. The distributions of 11 landslides are located in the level V zone and the accuracy is 84.62 % according to the relationship between landslide early warning result.
机译：降雨是滑坡灾害的主要诱因之一。根据建始县多年的滑坡监测资料和降雨资料，选取2002年至2008年发生的66次滑坡，约占全区126次滑坡的52.38％。有13个滑坡发生了两次变形或位移，约占所选择66个滑坡的19.70％。通过地统计学方法分析降雨与滑坡的相关性，确定了临界降雨和有效降雨。利用贝叶斯统计推断模型对概率模型进行改进，确定了滑坡预警系统区域的概率。基于ArcGIS软件的滑坡敏感性，降雨模型和概率模型的结果，建立了滑坡预警模型。概率值（T）为0.002168至0.909062。整个县分为四个等级的滑坡预警系统。利用降雨诱发的13个滑坡的二次变形或位移数据对模型进行了验证。总的来说，滑坡预警模型的结果是科学可靠的。八个滑坡的降雨数据符合该模型，并在IV / V级范围内。根据滑坡与降雨之间的关系，精度约为61.54％。根据滑坡预警结果之间的关系，有11个滑坡分布在V级区域，准确度为84.62％。

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