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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental earth sciences >Assessing the climate change impacts on the rainfall erosivity throughout the twenty-first century in the Grande River Basin (GRB) headwaters, Southeastern Brazil
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Assessing the climate change impacts on the rainfall erosivity throughout the twenty-first century in the Grande River Basin (GRB) headwaters, Southeastern Brazil

机译：在巴西东南部的格兰德河流域（GRB）上游评估气候变化对整个二十世纪降雨侵蚀力的影响

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Climate change is always occurring. Its impacts on the environment are still uncertain, especially due to the difficulty of simulating the earth's climate accurately. However, the global circulation climate models have been the only scientific tool to assess such impacts and their results have been well accepted. This study aimed to analyze the possible impacts on rainfall erosive potential throughout the twenty-first century for the A1B climate change scenario, in the Grande River Basin (GRB) headwaters, Southeastern Brazil. The results from Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 model were taken into account to calculate the climatic erosivity indicators "Modified Fournier Index" (MFI) and "Precipitation Concentration Index" (PCI). Based on three meteorological stations, which are monitoring the weather in GRB headwaters since 2005, every 10 min, a statistical relationship between annual rainfall erosivity (EI30) and the respective MFI was adjusted to infer about EI30 in the future. The results have showed an increase in annual amount of precipitation for most months of the year, except for September and October, throughout the twenty-first century. The greatest impacts on EI30 are associated with the projected increase in precipitation for December and January, which can reach up to 49 %. A significant increase in MFI and PCI was observed over the twenty-first century in relation to the present climate. These results demonstrate a potential increase in rainfall erosive power, which causes special concerns due to predominance of shallow soils, associated with undulated to strongly undulated relief in the studied region.
机译：气候变化一直在发生。它对环境的影响仍然不确定，尤其是由于难以准确模拟地球的气候。但是，全球环流气候模式是评估此类影响的唯一科学工具，其结果已被广泛接受。这项研究旨在分析在巴西东南部格兰德河流域（GRB）上游源头，在整个二十世纪A1B气候变化情景中对降雨侵蚀潜力的可能影响。考虑了Eta-CPTEC / HadCM3模型的结果，以计算气候侵蚀性指标“改良傅里叶指数”（MFI）和“降水浓度指数”（PCI）。基于三个气象站，它们自2005年以来一直在监视GRB上游的天气，每10分钟对年降雨侵蚀力（EI30）与相应MFI之间的统计关系进行调整，以推断未来的EI30。结果表明，在整个21世纪，除9月和10月外，一年中大部分月份的年降水量都有所增加。对EI30的最大影响与预计12月和1月降水量的增加有关，降水量最多可以达到49％。相对于当前的气候，在二十一世纪观察到MFI和PCI的显着增加。这些结果表明，降雨侵蚀力可能增加，这主要是由于浅层土壤占主导地位，与研究区域的起伏到强烈起伏的起伏有关。

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