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A multicriteria analytical framework for sustainability evaluation under methodological uncertainties

机译：方法论不确定性下可持续性评价的多标准分析框架

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摘要

Multicriteria analysis is widely used to perform sustainability evaluation for purposes such as decision making or progress assessment following a chosen sustainable development concept. The stages of multicriteria analysis include indicator selection, data characterization, normalization, weighting, and aggregation. However, due to the various framings of sustainability, non-equivalent approaches could be adopted at each stage, introducing methodological uncertainty. Consequently, depending on the methods chosen, divergent and conflicting conclusions or decisions may result. This paper addresses the issue of methodological uncertainties in sustainability evaluation by analyzing how methodological uncertainties arise during multicriteria analysis, then proposing an analytical framework that employs uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to quantify and manage the effects of methodological uncertainties. The consideration of methodological uncertainties in the structure of multicriteria sustainability evaluation shifts the analysis from deterministic to probabilistic, which is advantageous to arrive at robust and homogenized sustainability conclusions or decisions.
机译：多标准分析广泛用于对所选择的可持续发展理念之后的决策或进展评估等目的进行可持续性评估。多标准分析的阶段包括指示器选择，数据表征，归一化，加权和聚合。然而，由于可持续性的各种框架，每个阶段都可以采用不等同的方法，引入方法论不确定性。因此，取决于所选择的方法，可能会导致发散和相互矛盾的结论或决定。本文通过分析多标准分析过程中出现的方法，提出了采用不确定性和敏感性分析的分析框架来解决可持续性评估中的方法论不确定性问题的问题，然后提出了采用不确定性和敏感性分析来量化和管理方法的不确定性的影响。考虑到多铁季度可持续性评估结构中的方法的不确定性转移了确定性概率的分析，这是有利于稳健和均质的可持续发展结论或决策的有利。

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