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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental Management >Impact of Demographic Trends on Future Development Patterns and the Loss of Open Space in the California Mojave Desert
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Impact of Demographic Trends on Future Development Patterns and the Loss of Open Space in the California Mojave Desert

机译：人口趋势对加利福尼亚莫哈韦沙漠中未来发展模式的影响以及开放空间的损失

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摘要

During the post-World War II era, the Mojave Desert Region of San Bernardino County, California, has experienced rapid levels of population growth. Over the past several decades, growth has accelerated, accompanied by significant shifts in ethnic composition, most notably from predominantly White non-Hispanic to Hispanic. This study explores the impacts of changing ethnicity on future development and the loss of open space by modeling ethnic propensities regarding family size and settlement preferences reflected by U.S. Census Bureau data. Demographic trends and land conversion data were obtained for seven Mojave Desert communities for the period between 1990 and 2001. Using a spatially explicit, logistic regressionbased urban growth model, these data and trends were used to project community-specific future growth patterns from 2000 to 2020 under three future settlement scenarios: (1) an "historic" scenario reported in earlier research that uses a Mojave-wide average settlement density of 3.76 persons/ ha; (2) an "existing" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities as of 2001; and (3) a "demographic futures" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities that explicitly model the Region's changing ethnicity. Results found that under the demographic futures scenario, by 2020 roughly 53% of within-community open space would remain, under the existing scenario only 40% would remain, and under the historic scenario model the communities would have what amounts to a deficit of open space. Differences in the loss of open space across the scenarios demonstrate the importance of considering demographic trends that are reflective of the residential needs and preferences of projected future populations.
机译：在第二次世界大战后时期，加利福尼亚州圣贝纳迪诺县的莫哈韦沙漠地区的人口增长迅速。在过去的几十年中，经济增长加速，伴随着种族组成的重大转变，最显着的是从非西班牙裔白人到西班牙裔。这项研究通过对美国人口普查局数据反映的关于家庭规模和定居偏好的种族倾向进行建模，探索了种族变化对未来发展的影响以及开放空间的损失。获得了1990年至2001年期间莫哈韦沙漠七个社区的人口趋势和土地转化数据。使用基于空间显式，基于逻辑回归的城市增长模型，这些数据和趋势用于预测2000年至2020年特定于社区的未来增长模式在以下三种未来的定居情景中：（1）较早的研究报告了一种“历史性”的情景，该情景使用的莫哈韦沙漠地区平均定居密度为3.76人/公顷； （2）基于2001年特定于社区的居住密度的“现有”方案； （3）基于特定于社区的定居密度的“人口统计未来”场景，该场景明确模拟了该地区不断变化的种族。结果发现，在人口前景情景下，到2020年，将保留大约53％的社区内部开放空间，在现有情景下将仅保留40％，在历史情景模型下，社区将拥有相当于开放空间的赤字空间。在各种情况下，开放空间的损失差异表明，考虑反映居民需求和预计未来人口偏好的人口趋势的重要性。

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