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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental Management >Predicted Changes in Interannual Water-Level Fluctuations Due to Climate Change and Its Implications for the Vegetation of the Florida Everglades
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Predicted Changes in Interannual Water-Level Fluctuations Due to Climate Change and Its Implications for the Vegetation of the Florida Everglades

机译：气候变化导致的年际水位波动预测变化及其对佛罗里达大沼泽地植被的影响

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摘要

The number of dominant vegetation types (wet prairies, sawgrass flats, ridges and sloughs, sloughs, and tree islands) historically and currently found in the Everglades, FL, USA, as with other wetlands with standing water, 'appears to be primarily a function of the magnitude of interannual water-level fluctuations. Analyses of 40 years of water-depth data were used to estimate the magnitude of contemporary (baseline) water-level fluctuations in undisturbed ridge and slough landscapes. Baseline interannual water-level fluctuations above the soil surface were at least 1.5 m. Predicted changes in interannual water-level fluctuations in 2060 were examined for seven climate change scenarios. When rainfall is predicted to increase by 10 %, the wettest scenario, the interannual range of water-level fluctuation increases to 1.8 m above the soil surface in sloughs. When rainfall is predicted to decrease by 10 % and temperatures to increase by 1.5 ℃, the driest scenario, the range of interannual range of water-level fluctuations is predicted to decrease to 1.2 m above the soil surface in sloughs. A change of 25-30 cm in interannual water-level fluctuations is needed to change the number of vegetation types in a wetland. This suggests that the two most extreme climate change scenarios could have a significant impact on the overall structure of wetland vegetation, i.e., the number of vegetation types or zones, found in the Everglades.
机译：历史上和目前在美国佛罗里达大沼泽地发现的主要植被类型（湿大草原，锯齿草平地，山脊和泥沼，泥沼和树木岛）的数量，以及其他有积水的湿地，“似乎主要是由于年际水位波动的幅度。使用40年的水深数据进行分析，以估算未受干扰的山脊和泥沼景观中当代（基准）水位波动的幅度。在土壤表面以上的基线年际水位波动至少为1.5 m。针对七个气候变化情景，研究了2060年年际水位波动的预测变化。在最湿的情况下，当降雨量预计增加10％时，泥沼中水位波动的年际范围将增加到土壤表面以上1.8 m。在最干燥的情况下，当预计降雨量减少10％且温度增加1.5℃时，预计泥沼中地表水平面波动的年际范围将减小至1.2 m。年际水位波动需要改变25-30厘米，以改变湿地中植被的数量。这表明，两种最极端的气候变化情景可能会对湿地植被的整体结构（即在大沼泽地带发现的植被类型或区域数量）产生重大影响。

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