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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental Management >Climate Change Projected Effects on Coastal Foundation Communities of the Greater Everglades Using a 2060 Scenario: Need for a New Management Paradigm
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Climate Change Projected Effects on Coastal Foundation Communities of the Greater Everglades Using a 2060 Scenario: Need for a New Management Paradigm

机译:使用2060年情景,气候变化预计对大沼泽地沿海基金会社区的影响:需要新的管理范式

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摘要

Rising sea levels and temperature will be dominant drivers of coastal Everglades' foundation communities (i.e., mangrove forests, seagrass/macroalgae, and coral reefs) by 2060 based on a climate change scenario of +1.5 ℃ temperature, +1.5 foot (46 cm) in sea level, ±10 % in precipitation and 490 ppm CO_2. Current mangrove forest soil elevation change in South Florida ranges from 0.9 to 2.5 mm year~(-1) and would have to increase twofold to fourfold in order to accommodate a 2060 sea level rise rate. No evidence is available to indicate that coastal mangroves from South Florida and the wider Caribbean can keep pace with a rapid rate of sea level rise. Thus, particles and nutrients from destabilized coastlines could be mobilized and impact benthic habitats of southern Florida. Uncertainties in regional geomorphology and coastal current changes under higher sea levels make this prediction tentative without further research. The 2060 higher temperature scenario would compromise Florida's coral reefs that are already degraded. We suggest that a new paradigm is needed for resource management under climate change that manages coastlines for resilience to marine transgression and promotes active ecosystem management. In the case of the Everglades, greater freshwater flows could maximize mangrove peat accumulation, stabilize coastlines, and limit saltwater intrusion, while specific coral species may require propagation. Further, we suggest that regional climate drivers and oceanographic processes be incorporated into Everglades and South Florida management plans, as they are likely to impact coastal ecosystems, interior freshwater wetlands and urban coastlines over the next few decades.
机译:根据+1.5℃温度,+ 1.5英尺(46厘米)的气候变化情景,到2060年,海平面升高和温度升高将成为沿海大沼泽地基金会社区(即红树林,海草/宏藻和珊瑚礁)的主要驱动力。海平面,降水量为±10%,CO_2为490 ppm。南佛罗里达州当前的红树林土壤海拔变化范围为0.9到2.5毫米(-1)年,为了适应2060年的海平面上升速度,必须将其增加两倍至四倍。没有证据表明南佛罗里达和更广阔的加勒比海沿岸的红树林可以跟上海平面迅速上升的步伐。因此,动荡的海岸线中的颗粒和养分可以被动员,并影响佛罗里达南部的底栖生境。较高的海平面下区域地貌的不确定性和沿海海流的变化使得该预测具有暂定性,无需进一步研究。 2060年气温升高的情景将损害已经退化的佛罗里达珊瑚礁。我们建议在气候变化下的资源管理需要一种新的范例,该范例可以管理海岸线以抵御海洋侵害并促进积极的生态系统管理。以大沼泽地为例,更多的淡水流量可使红树林泥炭的积累最大化,稳定海岸线并限制咸水入侵,而某些特定的珊瑚物种可能需要繁殖。此外,我们建议将区域气候驱动因素和海洋学过程纳入大沼泽地和南佛罗里达州的管理计划,因为它们可能在未来几十年内影响沿海生态系统,内部淡水湿地和城市海岸线。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Environmental Management》 |2015年第4期|857-875|共19页
  • 作者单位

    Biological Sciences Department, Florida Atlantic University, 777 Glades Rd, Boca Raton, FL 33431, USA;

    Everglades Systems Assessment, South Florida Water Management District, 3301 Gun Club Road, West Palm Beach, FL 33406, USA;

    Protected Resources Division, Benthic Ecosystem Assessment and Research, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, 75 Virginia Beach Drive, Miami, FL 33149, USA;

    South Florida Natural Resources Center, Everglades National Park, 950 N. Krome Ave, Homestead, FL 33030, USA;

    South Florida Natural Resources Center, Everglades National Park, 950 N. Krome Ave, Homestead, FL 33030, USA;

    U.S. Geological Survey, 600 4th St. South, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA;

    Everglades Systems Assessment, South Florida Water Management District, 3301 Gun Club Road, West Palm Beach, FL 33406, USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Climate change; Sea level rise; Seagrass; Mangroves; Coral reefs; Management;

    机译:气候变化;海平面上升;海草;红树林;珊瑚礁;管理;

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