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Can Species Distribution Models Aid Bioassessment when Reference Sites are Lacking? Tests Based on Freshwater Fishes

机译:参考地点缺乏时,物种分布模型可以帮助进行生物评估吗?基于淡水鱼的测试

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摘要

Recent literature reviews of bioassessment methods raise questions about use of least-impacted reference sites to characterize natural conditions that no longer exist within contemporary landscapes. We explore an alternate approach for bioassessment that uses species site occupancy data from museum archives as input for species distribution models (SDMs) stacked to predict species assemblages of freshwater fishes in Texas. When data for estimating reference conditions are lacking, deviation between richness of contemporary versus modeled species assemblages could provide a means to infer relative biological integrity at appropriate spatial scales. We constructed SDMs for 100 freshwater fish species to compare predicted species assemblages to data on contemporary assemblages acquired by four independent surveys that sampled 269 sites. We then compared site-specific observed/predicted ratios of the number of species at sites to scores from a multimetric index of biotic integrity (IBI). Predicted numbers of species were moderately to strongly correlated with the numbers observed by the four surveys. We found significant, though weak, relationships between observed/predicted ratios and IBI scores. SDM-based assessments identified patterns of local assemblage change that were congruent with IBI inferences; however, modeling artifacts that likely contributed to over-prediction of species presence may restrict the stand-alone use of SDM-derived patterns for bioassessment and therefore warrant examination. Our results suggest that when extensive standardized survey data that include reference sites are lacking, as is commonly the case, SDMs derived from generally much more readily available species site occupancy data could be used to provide a complementary tool for bioassessment.
机译:有关生物评估方法的最新文献评论提出了有关如何使用影响最小的参考点来表征当代景观中不再存在的自然条件的问题。我们探索了一种生物评估的替代方法,该方法使用博物馆档案中的物种现场占用数据作为物种分布模型(SDM)的输入,这些模型堆叠起来可预测德克萨斯州淡水鱼的物种组成。当缺乏用于估计参考条件的数据时,当代物种与建模物种组合的丰富度之间的偏差可能会提供一种在适当的空间尺度上推断相对生物完整性的手段。我们为100种淡水鱼类构建了SDM,以将预测的物种组合与通过对269个地点进行采样的四次独立调查获得的当代组合数据进行比较。然后,我们比较了特定物种在站点上特定物种的观察/预测比率与来自生物完整性多指标(IBI)的得分。所预测的物种数量与这四个调查所观察到的数量具有中度至强烈相关性。我们发现,观察/预测比率与IBI得分之间存在显着但不显着的关系。基于SDM的评估确定了与IBI推论一致的局部组合变化模式;但是,可能导致过度预测物种存在的建模工件可能会限制将SDM衍生模式单独用于生物评估,因此需要进行检查。我们的结果表明,当缺乏包括参比位点在内的广泛标准化调查数据时(通常是这种情况),可以使用从通常更容易获得的物种位点占用数据中得出的SDM来提供生物评估的补充工具。

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