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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental research >Decline in malaria incidence in a typical county of China: Role of climate variance and anti-malaria intervention measures
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Decline in malaria incidence in a typical county of China: Role of climate variance and anti-malaria intervention measures

机译：中国典型县的疟疾发病率下降：气候变化和抗疟疾干预措施的作用

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摘要

Malaria is an important vector-borne disease which is widespread in tropical and subtropical areas worldwide as well as in south China. Previous research has separately focused on the association between malaria incidence and meteorological variables or between malaria incidence and anti-malaria intervention measures in China, especially in Yunnan Province. Therefore, a typical county, Tengchong County, in Yunnan Province with high malaria incidence was selected as the study area to investigate the integrated influence of climate variance and anti-malaria intervention measures. Malaria incidence and meteorological variables were analyzed with a 2 month lag. The variables include average monthly temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, cumulative precipitation, wind speed, maximum wind speed, relative humidity and minimum relative humidity. First, the principal component analysis was introduced to investigate the relationship between malaria incidence and meteorological variables; classification and regression trees were used to clarify contributions of key meteorological variables to malaria incidence afterwards. Second, based on existing anti-malaria intervention measures and above results, the integrated impact of climate variance and anti-malaria interventions on interannual trends of malaria incidence was analyzed. High malaria incidence occurred under one of the two meteorological conditions: 1) high minimum temperature combined with high minimum relative humidity or both precipitation and minimum relative humidity above middle level; 2) middle minimum temperature combined with both precipitation and minimum relative humidity below middle levels. Moreover, the steep inter annual decline of malaria incidence in Tengchong was determined by slight climate variance and persistent anti malaria intervention measures during malaria epidemics, predominantly by the latter. These findings will provide evidence data for developing malaria surveillance strategies in China.
机译：疟疾是一种重要的媒介传播疾病，在世界各地的热带和亚热带地区以及在华南地区都很普遍。先前的研究分别关注了中国尤其是云南省疟疾发病率与气象变量之间的关联，或者疟疾发病率与抗疟疾干预措施之间的关联。因此，选择云南省腾冲县一个典型的疟疾高发县作为研究区域，以研究气候变化和抗疟措施的综合影响。滞后2个月分析了疟疾发病率和气象变量。这些变量包括平均每月温度，最低温度，最高温度，累积降水量，风速，最大风速，相对湿度和最小相对湿度。首先，进行主成分分析以研究疟疾发病率与气象变量之间的关系。然后使用分类树和回归树来阐明关键的气象变量对疟疾发病率的影响。其次，根据现有的抗疟疾干预措施和上述结果，分析了气候变化和抗疟疾干预措施对疟疾发病率年际趋势的综合影响。疟疾高发是在以下两种气象条件之一下发生的：1）最低温度高，最低相对湿度高，或者降水量和最低相对湿度都高于中间水平； 2）最低中间温度与降水和最低相对湿度相结合。此外，腾冲的疟疾发病率年间急剧下降是由轻微的气候变化和疟疾流行期间持续采取的抗疟疾干预措施（主要是后者）决定的。这些发现将为中国制定疟疾监测策略提供证据。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental research》 |2018年第11期|276-282|共7页
  • 作者

    Liu Jianing; Wu Xiaoxu; Li Chenlu; Zhou Sen;

  • 作者单位

    Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci, State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China;

    Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci, State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China;

    Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci, State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China;

    Chinese Acad Social Sci, Postdoctoral Res Stn, Beijing 100028, Peoples R China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Malaria; Decline of incidence; Climate variance; Anti-malaria intervention measures;

    机译：疟疾;发病率下降;气候变化;抗疟疾干预措施;

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