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Improved comprehensive ecological risk assessment method and sensitivity analysis of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs)

机译：改善多环芳烃（PAHS）的综合生态风险评估方法和敏感性分析

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摘要

Based on the existing comprehensive ecological risk assessment methods of PAHs, this paper proposed an improved hierarchical Archimedean copula integral assessment (HACIA) model with the optimization in the model selection mechanism and accelerating the calculation speed, and according to which performed the sensitivity analysis of the integrated risk relative to the underlying grouped risk probability. Taihu Lake in China and the Bay of Santander in Spain were taken as study areas, whose samples were obtained and extracted concentrations of 16 priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). After briefly analyzing their concentration characteristics and source, their comprehensive ecological risks were evaluated by the improve HACIA model and their sensitivity was also analyzed. The results proved that, for Taihu Lake, pyrogenic sources occupied the dominance, especially grass, coal and wood combustion, while the risk proportion of 5-rings PAHs was the lowest indeed based on the improved HAICA model. For the Bay of Santander, source apportionment indicated both petrogenic and pyrogenic sources, mainly from vehicle emissions including gasoline and diesel engines, and 4-ring PAHs were urgently needed to be managed. However, the sensitivity analysis results of two study areas showed that the most effective control target for reducing integral risk has no obvious relationship with the maximum grouped risk. And a clear linear relationship between the maximum sensitivity range and the logarithm of the initial overall risk only presented in one of study areas, which required further research to clarify. In brief, the improved HACIA model is helpful to evaluate the comprehensive ecological risk of 16 PAHs, and formulate risk management strategies based on grouped risk assessment and sensitivity analysis, with the former points out the admonitory risk and the latter helps to find the most effective mitigation measures.
机译：本文基于现有的PAHS综合生态风险评估方法，提出了一种改进的分层ARCHIMEDEAN COPULA积分评估（HACIA）模型，在模型选择机制中的优化和加速计算速度，并根据该计算速度，并根据其进行了敏感性分析综合风险相对于潜在的分组风险概率。中国的太湖和西班牙的桑坦德湾被视为研究区，其样品获得并提取了16个优先级多环芳烃（PAH）的浓度。在简要分析它们的浓度特征和来源后，通过改善的HaCia模型评估其综合生态风险，并分析了它们的敏感性。结果证明，对于太湖，发热来源占据了优势，尤其是草，煤和木材燃烧，而5环PAH的风险比例确实是基于改善的海卡模型。对于桑坦德湾，源分摊表明纤维素和热原子源，主要来自包括汽油和柴油发动机的车辆排放，迫切需要4环PAHs。然而，两个研究领域的敏感性分析结果表明，减少积分风险的最有效的控制目标与最大的分组风险没有明显的关系。并且在一个研究领域中呈现的最大敏感范围和最初始风险的对数之间的明确线性关系，这需要进一步研究以澄清。简而言之，改善的Hacia模型有助于评估16 PAHS的综合生态风险，并根据分组风险评估和敏感性分析制定风险管理策略，前者指出了告诫风险，后者有助于找到最有效的风险缓解措施。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Environmental research》 |2020年第8期|109500.1-109500.13|共13页
  • 作者

    Wenyue Liu; Dong Wang; Yuankun Wang; Xiankui Zeng; Lingling Ni; Yuwei Tao; Jichun Wu; Jiufu Liu; Ying Zou; Ruimin He; Jianyun Zhang;

  • 作者单位

    Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry Ministry of Education Department of Hydrosciences School of Earth Sciences and Engineering Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse Nanjing University Nanjing PR China;

    Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry Ministry of Education Department of Hydrosciences School of Earth Sciences and Engineering Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse Nanjing University Nanjing PR China;

    Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry Ministry of Education Department of Hydrosciences School of Earth Sciences and Engineering Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse Nanjing University Nanjing PR China;

    Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry Ministry of Education Department of Hydrosciences School of Earth Sciences and Engineering Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse Nanjing University Nanjing PR China;

    Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry Ministry of Education Department of Hydrosciences School of Earth Sciences and Engineering Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse Nanjing University Nanjing PR China;

    Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry Ministry of Education Department of Hydrosciences School of Earth Sciences and Engineering Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse Nanjing University Nanjing PR China;

    Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry Ministry of Education Department of Hydrosciences School of Earth Sciences and Engineering Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse Nanjing University Nanjing PR China;

    Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute Nanjing PR China;

    Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute Nanjing PR China;

    Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute Nanjing PR China;

    Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute Nanjing PR China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons; Source apportionment; Comprehensive ecological risk assessment; Improved hierarchical archimedean copula; integral assessment model; Sensitivity analysis;

    机译：多环芳烃;来源分配;全面的生态风险评估;改进的分层Archimedean Copula;整体评估模型;敏感性分析;

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