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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental research >Tackling the mortality from long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution in megacities: Lessons from the Greater Cairo case study
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Tackling the mortality from long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution in megacities: Lessons from the Greater Cairo case study

机译：解决大城市长期暴露于室外空气污染导致的死亡率：大开罗案例研究的经验教训

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摘要

Objective: The poor outdoor air quality in megacities of the developing world and its impact on health is a matter of concern for both the local populations and the decision-makers. The objective of this work is to quantify the mortality attributable to long-term exposure to PM2.5, NO_2, and O_3 in Greater Cairo (Egypt). Methods: We analyze the temporal and spatial variability of the three pollutants concentrations measured at 18 stations of the area. Then, we apply the method recommended by the WHO to estimate the excess mortality. In this assessment, three different shapes (log-linear, linear, and log-log) of the concentration-response functions (CRF) are used. Results: With PM2.5 concentrations varying from 50 to more than 100 μg/m~3 in the different sectors of the megacity, the spatial variability of this pollutant is found to be one important cause of uncertainty on the excess mortality associated with it. Also important is the choice of the CRF. With the average (75 ug/m3) PM2.5 concentration and the most favorable log-log shape of the CRF, 11% (CI, 9-14%) of the non-accidental mortality in the population older than 30 years can still be attributed to PM2.5, which corresponds to 12520 (CI, 10240-15930) yearly premature deaths. Should the Egyptian legal 70 μg/m~3 PM10 limit (corresponding to approximately 37.5 μg/m~3 for PM2.5) be met, this number would be reduced to 7970, meaning that 4550 premature deaths could be avoided each year. Except around some industrial or traffic hot spots, NO_2 concentration is found to be below the 40 μg/m~3 air quality guideline of the WHO. However, the average concentration (34 μg/m~3) of this gas exceeds the stricter 10 μg/m~3 recommendation of the HRAPIE project and it is thus estimated that from 7850 to 10470 yearly deaths can be attributed to NO_2. Finally, with the ozone concentration measured at one station only, it is found that, depending on the choice of the CRF, between 2.4% and 8.8% of the mortality due to respiratory diseases can be attributed to this gas. Conclusion: In Greater Cairo, PM2.5 and NO_2 constitute major health risks. The best estimate is that in the population older than 30 years, 11% and 8% of the non-accidental mortality can be attributed to these two pollutants, respectively.
机译：目标：发展中世界大城市的室外空气质量差及其对健康的影响，是当地居民和决策者都应关注的问题。这项工作的目的是量化大开罗（埃及）由于长期暴露于PM2.5，NO_2和O_3而导致的死亡率。方法：我们分析了该地区18个站点测得的三种污染物浓度的时空变化。然后，我们采用WHO推荐的方法来估算超额死亡率。在此评估中，使用了浓度响应函数（CRF）的三种不同形状（对数线性，线性和对数对数）。结果：在大城市的不同区域，PM2.5的浓度从50μg/ m〜3至100μg/ m〜3以上，该污染物的空间变异性是导致与其相关的超额死亡率不确定的重要原因之一。 CRF的选择也很重要。凭借平均（75 ug / m3）的PM2.5浓度和最有利的CRF的对数-对数形状，在30岁以上的人群中仍有11％（CI，9-14％）的非偶然死亡率归因于PM2.5，它对应于每年12520（CI，10240-15930）年过早死亡。如果达到埃及法律规定的70μg/ m〜3 PM10限值（相当于PM2.5大约37.5μg/ m〜3），则该数字将降至7970，这意味着每年可以避免4550例过早死亡。除了一些工业或交通热点附近，NO_2浓度被发现低于WHO的40μg/ m〜3空气质量指南。但是，这种气体的平均浓度（34μg/ m〜3）超过了HRAPIE项目建议的更严格的10μg/ m〜3，因此，据估计，每年有7850至10470人死于NO_2。最后，仅在一个站点上测量臭氧浓度，发现根据CRF的选择，这种气体可导致呼吸道疾病造成的死亡率的2.4％至8.8％。结论：在大开罗，PM2.5和NO_2构成主要的健康风险。最好的估计是，在30岁以上的人群中，非偶然死亡率的11％和8％分别可归因于这两种污染物。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental research》 |2018年第1期|223-231|共9页
  • 作者

    Ali Wheida; Amira Nasser; Mostafa El Nazer; Agnes Borbon; Gehad A. Abo El Ata; Magdy Abdel Wahab; Stephane C. Alfaro;

  • 作者单位

    National Research Centre, Cairo, Egypt;

    Egyptian Meteorological Authority, Cairo, Egypt;

    National Research Centre, Cairo, Egypt;

    Laboratoire de Meteorologie Physique, Universite Clermont Auvergne, Aubiere, France;

    Kasr El-Aini Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt;

    Astronomy and Meteorology Department, Faculty of Science, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt;

    Laboratoire rnter-untversitaire des Systemes Atmosphe'riques, UMR CNRS 7583, Universires de Paris-Est Cre'teil et Paris-Diderot, France;

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