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A new method for wind speed forecasting based on copula theory

机译：基于copula理论的风速预测新方法。

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摘要

How to determine representative wind speed is crucial in wind resource assessment. Accurate wind resource assessments are important to wind farms development. Linear regressions are usually used to obtain the representative wind speed. However, terrain flexibility of wind farm and long distance between wind speed sites often lead to low correlation. In this study, copula method is used to determine the representative year's wind speed in wind farm by interpreting the interaction of the local wind farm and the meteorological station. The result shows that the method proposed here can not only determine the relationship between the local ane-mometric tower and nearby meteorological station through Kendall's tau, but also determine the joint distribution without assuming the variables to be independent. Moreover, the representative wind data can be obtained by the conditional distribution much more reasonably. We hope this study could provide scientific reference for accurate wind resource assessments.
机译：在风资源评估中，如何确定代表性风速至关重要。准确的风能资源评估对风电场的发展至关重要。通常使用线性回归来获得代表性风速。但是，风电场的地形灵活性以及风速站点之间的距离过长通常会导致相关性较低。在这项研究中，使用copula方法通过解释当地风电场和气象站之间的相互作用来确定风电场的代表年风速。结果表明，本文提出的方法不仅可以通过肯德尔的τ确定局部测风塔与附近气象站之间的关系，而且可以在不假设变量独立的情况下确定联合分布。而且，可以通过条件分布更加合理地获得代表风数据。我们希望这项研究可以为准确的风资源评估提供科学参考。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental research》 |2018年第1期|365-371|共7页
  • 作者

    Yuankun Wang; Huiqun Ma; Dong Wang; Guizuo Wang; Jichun Wu; Jinyu Bian; Jiufu Liu;

  • 作者单位

    Key laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education, Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China;

    Shandong Electric Power Engineering Consulting Institute Corp, Ltd, Jinan 250013, China;

    Key laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education, Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China;

    Development Research Center of the Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100038, China;

    Key laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education, Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China;

    Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China;

    Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Wind farm; Wind speed; Copula method; Conditional distribution;

    机译：风电场;风速;Copula法;有条件分配;

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