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Projecting environmental suitable areas for malaria transmission in China under climate change scenarios

机译：预测气候变化情景下中国适合疟疾传播的环境适宜区域

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IntroductionThe proportion of imported malaria cases in China has increased over recent years, and has presented challenges for the malaria elimination program in China. However, little is known about the geographic distribution and environmental suitability for malaria transmission under projected climate change scenarios.nMethodsUsing the MaxEnt model based on malaria presence-only records, we produced environmental suitability maps and examined the relative contribution of topographic, demographic, and environmental risk factors forP. vivaxandP. falciparummalaria in China.nResultsThe MaxEnt model estimated that environmental suitability areas (ESAs) for malaria cover the central, south, southwest, east and northern regions, with a slightly wider range of ESAs extending to the northeast region forP. falciparum. There was spatial agreement between the location of imported cases and area environmentally suitable for malaria transmission. The ESAs ofP. vivaxandP. falciparumare projected to increase in some parts of southwest, south, central, north and northeast regions in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s, by a greater amount forP. falciparumunder the RCP8.5 scenario. Temperature and NDVI values were the most influential in defining the ESAs forP. vivax, and temperature and precipitation the most influential forP. falciparummalaria.nConclusionThis study estimated that the ESA for malaria transmission in China will increase with climate change and highlights the potential establishment of further local transmission. This model should be used to support malaria control by targeting areas where interventions on malaria transmission need to be enhanced.
机译：简介近年来，中国输入性疟疾病例的比例有所增加，这为中国消除疟疾计划提出了挑战。但是，对于预计的气候变化情景下疟疾传播的地理分布和环境适宜性知之甚少。n方法使用基于仅存在疟疾记录的MaxEnt模型，我们制作了环境适宜性图，并研究了地形，人口和环境的相对贡献P的危险因素。 vivaxandP。 n结果MaxEnt模型估计，疟疾的环境适宜性区域（ESA）覆盖中部，南部，西南，东部和北部地区，范围更广的ESA延伸至东北部地区。恶性在进口病例的位置和环境适合疟疾传播的区域之间存在空间上的共识。 P的ESA。 vivaxandP。预计到2030年代，2050年代和2080年代，西南，南部，中部，北部和东北部的某些地区的恶性疟疾发病率将会增加，P的增加幅度更大。在RCP8.5方案下出现恶性循环。温度和NDVI值对定义P的ESA影响最大。间日间，温度和降水对磷的影响最大。结论本研究估计，随着气候变化，中国用于疟疾传播的ESA将会增加，并强调了建立进一步本地传播的潜在可能性。该模型应通过针对需要加强对疟疾传播干预措施的领域，来支持疟疾控制。

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