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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental research >Association between dengue fever incidence and meteorological factors in Guangzhou, China, 2005-2014
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Association between dengue fever incidence and meteorological factors in Guangzhou, China, 2005-2014

机译：2005-2014年中国广州市登革热发病率与气象因素的关联

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摘要

This study aims to (1) investigate the associations between climatic factors and dengue; and (2) identify the susceptible subgroups. De-identified daily dengue cases in Guangzhou for 2005-2014 were obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Weather data were downloaded from the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System. Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) were used to graphically demonstrate the three-dimensional temperature-dengue association. Generalised estimating equation models (GEE) with piecewise linear spline functions were used to quantify the temperature-dengue associations. Threshold values were estimated using a broken-stick model. Middle-aged and older people, people undertaking household duties, retirees, and those unemployed were at high risk of dengue. Reversed U-shaped non-linear associations were found between ambient temperature, relative humidity, extreme wind velocity, and dengue. The optimal maximum temperature (T_(max)range for dengue transmission in Guangzhou was 21.6-32.9 °C, and 11.2-23.7 °C for minimum temperature (T_(mln)). A 1 °C increase of T_(max) and T_(min) within these ranges was associated with 11.996 and 9.996 increase in dengue at lagO, respectively. Although lag effects of temperature were observed for up to 141 days for T_(max) and 150 days for T_(min), the maximum lag effects were observed at 32 days and 39 days respectively. Average relative humidity was negatively associated with dengue when it exceeded 78.9%. Maximum wind velocity (> 10.7 m/s) inhibited dengue transmission. Climatic factors had significant impacts on dengue in Guangzhou. Lag effects of temperature on dengue lasted the local whole epidemic season. To reduce the likely increasing dengue burden, more efforts are needed to strengthen the capacity building of public health systems.
机译：这项研究旨在（1）研究气候因素与登革热之间的关系； （2）确定易感亚组。从中国疾病预防控制中心获得的2005-2014年广州未确诊的每日登革热病例。气象数据是从中国气象数据共享服务系统下载的。分布式滞后非线性模型（DLNM）用于图形显示三维温度-登革热的关联。具有分段线性样条函数的广义估计方程模型（GEE）用于量化温度-登革热的关联。使用折断模型估计阈值。中老年人，从事家务劳动的人，退休人员和失业者都有登革热的高风险。在环境温度，相对湿度，极端风速和登革热之间发现了反向的U形非线性关系。广州的登革热传播最佳最高温度（T_（max）范围为21.6-32.9°C，最低温度（T_（mln））为11.2-23.7°C，T_（max）和T_分别增加1°C。在此范围内的最低（min）分别与lagO在登革热时的登革热增加11.996和9.996有关，尽管温度滞后效应在T_（max）长达141天，T_（min）长达150天，但最大滞后效应分别在32天和39天观察到登革热，当平均相对湿度超过78.9％时，它与登革热呈负相关；最大风速（> 10.7 m / s）抑制了登革热的传播；气候因素对广州的登革热有显着影响。登革热的温度持续了整个地方的整个流行季节，为减少可能增加的登革热负担，需要做出更多努力来加强公共卫生系统的能力建设。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental research》 |2017年第2期|17-26|共10页
  • 作者

    Jianjun Xiang; Alana Hansen; Qiyong Liu; Xiaobo Liu; Michael Xiaoliang Tong; Yehuan Sun; Scott Cameron; Scott Hanson-Easey; Gil-Soo Han; Craig Williams; Philip Weinstein; Peng Bi;

  • 作者单位

    Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Unit, School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia;

    Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Unit, School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia;

    State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases,National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China;

    State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases,National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China;

    Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Unit, School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia;

    Department of Epidemiology, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui 230032, China;

    Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Unit, School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia;

    Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Unit, School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia;

    Communications and Media Studies, School of Media, Film and Journalism, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria 3800, Australia;

    School of Pharmacy and Medical Sciences, University of South Australia, Adelaide, South Australia 5001, Australia;

    School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia;

    Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Unit, School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Dengue fever; Climate change; Infectious disease; Weather; Guangzhou;

    机译：登革热;气候变化;传染病;天气;广州;

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