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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental research >Spatiotemporal patterns of paralytic shellfish toxins and their relationships with environmental variables in British Columbia, Canada from 2002 to 2012
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Spatiotemporal patterns of paralytic shellfish toxins and their relationships with environmental variables in British Columbia, Canada from 2002 to 2012

机译：2002年至2012年加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省麻痹性贝类毒素的时空分布及其与环境变量的关系

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Abstract Background Harmful algal blooms produce paralytic shellfish toxins that accumulate in the tissues of filter feeding shellfish. Ingestion of these toxic shellfish can cause a serious and potentially fatal condition known as paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP). The coast of British Columbia is routinely monitored for shellfish toxicity, and this study uses data from the monitoring program to identify spatiotemporal patterns in shellfish toxicity events and their relationships with environmental variables. Methods The dinoflagellate genus Alexandrium produces the most potent paralytic shellfish toxin, saxitoxin (STX). Data on all STX measurements were obtained from 49 different shellfish monitoring sites along the coast of British Columbia for 2002–2012, and monthly toxicity events were identified. We performed hierarchical cluster analysis to group sites that had events in similar areas with similar timing. Machine learning techniques were used to model the complex relationships between toxicity events and environmental variables in each group. Results The Strait of Georgia and the west coast of Vancouver Island had unique toxicity regimes. Out of the seven environmental variables used, toxicity in each cluster could be described by multivariable models including monthly sea surface temperature, air temperature, sea surface salinity, freshwater discharge, upwelling, and photosynthetically active radiation. The sea surface salinity and freshwater discharge variables produced the strongest univariate models for both geographic areas. Conclusions Applying these methods in coastal regions could allow for the prediction of shellfish toxicity events by environmental conditions. This has the potential to optimize biotoxin monitoring, improve public health surveillance, and engage the shellfish industry in helping to reduce the risk of PSP. Highlights • Data on paralytic shellfish toxins and environmental variables were assembled. • Spatiotemporal patterns showed two distinct shellfish toxicity regimes. • Monthly toxicity events were successfully modelled with random forests. • Sea surface salinity and freshwater discharge were the most useful predictors. • These models can aid public health surveillance to assess shellfish toxicity risk.
机译： 摘要 背景 有害的藻华会产生麻痹性贝类毒素并积累在过滤喂贝类的组织中。摄入这些有毒的贝类会导致严重的和可能致命的状况，称为麻痹性贝类中毒（PSP）。常规监测不列颠哥伦比亚省海岸的贝类毒性，本研究使用监测程序中的数据来确定贝类毒性事件的时空模式及其与环境变量的关系。 方法 甲鞭毛藻属 Alexandrium 产生最有效的麻痹性贝毒素毒素，即毒素（STX）。所有STX测量值的数据均来自2002-2012年不列颠哥伦比亚省沿海49个不同的贝类监测点，并确定了每月毒性事件。我们执行了层次聚类分析，以将在相似区域以相同时间发生事件的站点分组。使用机器学习技术来模拟每组中毒性事件和环境变量之间的复杂关系。 结果 乔治亚海峡温哥华岛的西海岸具有独特的毒性机制。在使用的七个环境变量中，每个集群中的毒性可以通过多变量模型来描述，包括每月海面温度，气温，海面盐度，淡水排放，上升流和光合有效辐射。海平面盐度和淡水排放变量为这两个地理区域产生了最强的单变量模型。 结论 在沿海地区应用这些方法可以根据环境条件预测贝类毒性事件。这有可能优化生物毒素监测，改善公共卫生监测，并使贝类行业参与以帮助降低PSP的风险。 突出显示 • 收集了有关麻痹性贝类毒素和环境变量的数据。 • 时空模式显示出两种不同的贝类毒性机制。 • 使用随机森林成功模拟了每月毒性事件。 • 海面盐度和淡水排放是最有用的预测指标。 • 这些模型可以帮助公共卫生监督评估贝类毒性风险。

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