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Assessing Alternative Population Size Proxies in a Wastewater Catchment Area Using Mobile Device Data

机译：使用移动设备数据评估污水集水区的替代人口规模代理

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摘要

Modeling and prediction of a city's (Oslo, Norway) daily dynamic population using mobile device-based population activity data and three low cost markers is presented for the first time. Such data is useful for wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE), which is an approach used to estimate the population level use of licit and illicit drugs, new psychoactive substances, human exposure to a wide range of pollutants, such as pesticides or phthalates, as well as the release of endogenous substances such as oxidative stress- and allergen biomarkers. Comparing WBE results between cities often requires normalization to population size, and inaccuracy in the measured population can introduce high levels of uncertainty. In this study mobile phone data from 8-weeks in 2016 was used to train three linear models based on drinking water production, electricity consumption and online measurements of ammonium in wastewater. The ammonium model showed the best correlation with R-2 = 0.88 while drinking water production and electricity consumption showed more discrepancies. The three models were then re-evaluated against 5-week of mobile phone data from 2017 showing mean absolute errors 10%. The ammonium-based estimated mean annual population for Oslo in 2017 was 645 000 inhabitants, 4% higher than the "de jure" population reported by the wastewater treatment plant. Due to changing conditions and seasonality, drinking water production underestimated the population by 27% and electricity consumption overestimated the population by 59%. Therefore, the results of this work showed that the ammonium mass loads can be used as an anthropogenic proxy to monitor and correct the fluctuations in population for a specific catchment area. Furthermore, this approach uses a simple, yet reliable indicator for population size that can be used also in other areas of research.
机译：首次展示了基于移动设备的人口活动数据和三个低成本标记对城市（挪威奥斯陆）每日动态人口的建模和预测。此类数据对于基于废水的流行病学（WBE）很有用，该方法可用于估算合法和非法药物，新的精神活性物质，人体与各种污染物（例如农药或邻苯二甲酸盐）的接触程度，以人口为基础。以及释放内源性物质，例如氧化应激和过敏原生物标志物。比较城市之间的WBE结果通常需要对人口规模进行归一化，而被测人口的不准确性可能会带来高度的不确定性。在这项研究中，使用了2016年8周的手机数据来训练三个线性模型，这些模型基于饮用水产量，电力消耗和废水中铵的在线测量。铵盐模型显示出最佳相关性，R-2 = 0.88，而饮用水生产和电力消耗显示出更多差异。然后根据2017年以来的5周手机数据对这三个模型进行了重新评估，结果显示平均绝对误差<10％。 2017年，奥斯陆基于氨的估计平均年人口为645 000居民，比废水处理厂报告的“法律上”的人口高4％。由于条件和季节的变化，饮用水的生产低估了人口27％，电力消耗高估了59％。因此，这项工作的结果表明，铵的质量负荷可以用作人为代理，以监测和纠正特定集水区的人口波动。此外，这种方法使用了一个简单但可靠的人口规模指标，该指标也可用于其他研究领域。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental Science & Technology》 |2019年第4期|1994-2001|共8页
  • 作者

    Baz-Lomba Jose Antonio; Di Ruscio Francesco; Arnador Arturo; Reid Malcolm; Thomas Kevin V.;

  • 作者单位

    Norwegian Inst Water Res NIVA, Gaustadalleen 21, NO-0349 Oslo, Norway;

    Univ Oslo, Inst Basic Med Sci, Dept Biostat, Oslo, Norway;

    Telenor ASA, Snaroyveien 30, NO-1360 Fornebu, Norway;

    Norwegian Inst Water Res NIVA, Gaustadalleen 21, NO-0349 Oslo, Norway;

    Norwegian Inst Water Res NIVA, Gaustadalleen 21, NO-0349 Oslo, Norway;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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