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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental Science & Technology >Can China Peak Its Non-CO_2 GHG Emissions before 2030 by Implementing Its Nationally Determined Contribution?
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Can China Peak Its Non-CO_2 GHG Emissions before 2030 by Implementing Its Nationally Determined Contribution?

机译：中国能否通过实施国家自主贡献来在2030年之前达到其非CO_2温室气体排放量的峰值？

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摘要

Non-CO2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions account for about 1/4 of global GHG emissions, and the trend of these emissions, as well as their mitigation potential and abatement cost, are of interest to both scientific researchers and decision makers. We present an integrated model, China Multigas Optimal Reduction Evaluation model (China-MORE), of the nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), and fluorinated gases (F-gases) emissions of China, with which we analyze the non-CO2 emission reduction implications of China's Paris pledges. We find that Chinas non-CO2 emissions can peak before 2030 under its Paris pledges, where the cobenefit of coal control policy is the largest contributor to this emissions trajectory due to reduction of CH4 from coal mines. Based on the mitigation cost curve, we show that while the non-CO2 emission reductions are cost-effective at a lower reduction rate, they can only be reduced up to 60-70% due to physical constraints of the reduction technologies, leaving 1.4 Gt CO2-eq of residual emissions in 2050. The growth of non-CO2 emissions in China is largely driven by household consumption of cooling technologies, vehicles, and food. Our findings imply that deep reductions can only be achieved through the deployment of mitigation technologies at a reasonable cost, along with policies to induce behavioral change.
机译：非CO2温室气体（GHG）排放量约占全球GHG排放量的1/4，而且这些排放量的趋势以及其减排潜力和减排成本，对科研人员和决策者都非常重要。我们提出了中国一氧化二氮（N2O），甲烷（CH4）和氟化气体（F-gas）排放的综合模型，即中国多气体最佳减排评估模型（China-MORE）。中国巴黎承诺减少二氧化碳排放量的影响。我们发现，根据其巴黎承诺，中国的非二氧化碳排放量可能会在2030年之前达到峰值，由于煤矿CH4的减少，煤炭控制政策的优势是造成这一排放轨迹的最大因素。根据减排成本曲线，我们显示，虽然非CO2排放的减排量在降低排放率方面具有成本效益，但由于减排技术的物理限制，它们最多只能减排60-70％，从而保留1.4 Gt 2050年剩余二氧化碳当量排放量。中国非二氧化碳排放量的增长主要由家庭对制冷技术，车辆和食品的消费所驱动。我们的发现表明，只有通过以合理的成本部署缓解技术以及引发行为改变的政策，才能实现深度减排。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental Science & Technology》 |2019年第21期|12168-12176|共9页
  • 作者

    Teng Fei; Su Xin; Wang Xin;

  • 作者单位

    Tsinghua Univ Inst Energy Environm & Econ Beijing 100084 Peoples R China;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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