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Perspectives on Cobalt Supply through 2030 in the Face of Changing Demand

机译:面对需求变化的2030年钴供应前景

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摘要

Lithium-ion battery demand, particularly for electric vehicles, is projected to increase by over 300% throughout the next decade. With these expected increases in demand, cobalt (Co)-dependent technologies face the risk of significant impact from supply concentration and mining limitations in the short term. Increased extraction and secondary recovery form the basis of modeling scenarios that examine implications on Co supply to 2030. Demand for Co is estimated to range from 235 to 430 ktonnes in 2030. This upper bound on Co demand in 2030 corresponds to 280% of world refinery capacity in 2016. Supply from scheduled and unscheduled production as well as secondary production is estimated to range from 320 to 460 ktonnes. Our analysis suggests the following: (l) Co price will remain relatively stable in the short term, given that this range suggests even a supply surplus, (2) future Co supply will become more diversified geographically and mined more as a byproduct of nickel (Ni) over this period, and (3) for this demand to be met, attention should be paid to sustained investments in refined supply of Co and secondary recovery.
机译:锂离子电池的需求,尤其是电动汽车的锂离子电池,在未来十年内预计将增长300%以上。随着这些需求的预期增加,短期内钴(Co)依赖性技术将面临供应集中和采矿限制带来重大影响的风险。提炼和二次回收的增加构成了模拟情景的基础,该情景研究了对2030年钴供应的影响。预计2030年对Co的需求量将从235吨至430吨不等。2030年Co需求的上限相当于世界精炼厂的280%计划2016年实现产能。计划和非计划生产以及二次生产的供应量估计为320至460吨。我们的分析表明:(l)钴的价格在短期内将保持相对稳定,因为该范围表明甚至供应过剩,(2)未来钴的供应将在地域上更加多样化,并作为镍的副产品而开采得更多( Ni)在此期间,以及(3)为了满足此需求,应注意持续投资于精炼的Co供应和二次回收。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Environmental Science & Technology》 |2020年第5期|2985-2993|共9页
  • 作者单位

    Department of Materials Science & Engineering MIT Cambridge Massachusetts 02139 United States;

    Materials Research Laboratory MIT Cambridge Massachusetts 02139 United States;

    Alfred University Alfred New York 14802 United States;

    Department of Materials Science & Engineering University of California Berkeley Berkeley California 94720 United States;

    Golisano Institute for Sustainability RIT Rochester New York 14623 United States;

    Department of Materials Science & Engineering MIT Cambridge Massachusetts 02139 United States;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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  • 正文语种 eng
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