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Global Phosphorus Losses from Croplands under Future Precipitation Scenarios

机译：未来降水场景下农田的全球磷损失

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摘要

Phosphorus (P) losses from fertilized croplands to inland water bodies cause serious environmental problems. During wet years, high precipitation disproportionately contributes to P losses. We combine simulations of a gridded crop model and outputs from a number of hydrological and climate models to assess global impacts of changes in precipitation regimes on P losses during the 21st century. Under the baseline climate during 1991-2010, median P losses are 2.7 ± 0.5 kg P ha~(-1) year~(-1) over global croplands of four major crops, while during wet years, P losses are 3.6 ± 0.7 kg P ha~(-1) year~(-1). By the end of this century, P losses in wet years would reach 4.2 ± 1.0 (RCP2.6) and 4.7 ± 1.3 (RCP8.S) kg P ha~(-1) year~(-1) due to increases in high annual precipitation alone. The increases in P losses are the highest (up to 200%) in the arid regions of Middle East, Central Asia, and northern Africa. Consequently, in three quarters of the world's river basins, representing about 40% of total global runoff and home up to 7 billion people, P dilution capacity of freshwater could be exceeded due to P losses from croplands by the end of this century.
机译：来自受精农田对内陆水体的磷（P）损失导致严重的环境问题。在潮湿年期间，高降水不成比例地有助于P损失。我们将网格作物模型的模拟与许多水文和气候模型相结合，以评估21世纪损失在P损失中的降水制度变化的全球影响。在1991 - 2010年的基线气氛下，中位数P损失为2.7±0.5公斤P ha〜（-1）年〜（-1）全球农作物的全球农作物，而在潮湿年份，P损耗为3.6±0.7千克p ha〜（-1）年〜（-1）。到本世纪末，潮湿年的P损失将达到4.2±1.0（RCP2.6）和4.7±1.3（RCP8.S）kg P HA〜（-1）年〜（-1）由于高度增加单独降水量。 P损失的增加是中东，中亚和北非中东干旱地区的最高（高达200％）。因此，在全球河流盆地的三个季度，占全球径流总额的约40％，最高可达70亿人，可以超出本世纪末的农田损失的淡水稀释能力。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental Science & Technology》 |2020年第22期|14761-14771|共11页
  • 作者

    Wenfeng Liu; Philippe Ciais; Xingcai Liu; Hong Yang; Arjen Y. Hoekstra; Qiuhong Tang; Xuhui Wang; Xiaodong Li; Lei Cheng;

  • 作者单位

    Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement LSCE/IPSL CEA-CNRS-UVSQ Universite Paris-Saclay F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette France College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering China Agricultural University Beijing 100083 China;

    Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement LSCE/IPSL CEA-CNRS-UVSQ Universite Paris-Saclay F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette France;

    Eawag Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology CH-8600 Duebendorf Switzerland Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China;

    Eawag Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology CH-8600 Duebendorf Switzerland Department of Environmental Sciences MGU University of Basel CH-4003 Basel Switzerland;

    Twente Water Centre University of Twente 7522 NB Enschede The Netherlands Institute of Water Policy Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy National University of Singapore 259772 Singapore;

    Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China;

    Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement LSCE/IPSL CEA-CNRS-UVSQ Universit'e Paris-Saclay F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette France College of Urban & Environmental Sciences Peking University Beijing 100871 China;

    State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering Sichuan University 610065 Chengdu China;

    State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science Wuhan University Wuhan 430072 China Hubei Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Resources Security Wuhan 430072 China;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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