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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental Science & Technology >Improving Evaluation of Energy Policies with Multiple Goals: Comparing Ex Ante and Ex Post Approaches
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Improving Evaluation of Energy Policies with Multiple Goals: Comparing Ex Ante and Ex Post Approaches

机译：提高多目标的能源政策评估：比较前蚂蚁和前岗位方法

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摘要

Sustainability policies are often motivated by the potential to achieve multiple goals, such as simultaneously mitigating the climate change and air quality impacts of energy use. Ex ante analysis is used prospectively to inform policy decisions by estimating a policy's impact on multiple objectives. In contrast, ex post analysis of impacts that may have multiple causes can retrospectively evaluate the effectiveness of policies. Ex ante analyses are rarely compared with ex post evaluations of the same policy. These comparisons can assess the realism of assumptions in ex ante methods and reveal opportunities for improving prospective analyses. We illustrate the benefits of such a comparison by examining a case of two energy policies in China. Using ex post analysis, we estimate the impacts of two policies, one that targets energy intensity and another that imposes quantitative targets on SO_2 emissions, on energy use and pollution outcomes in two major energy-intensive industrial sectors (cement, iron and steel) in China. We find that the ex post effects of the energy intensity policy on both energy and pollution outcomes are very limited on average, while the effects of the SO_2 emissions policy are large. Compared with ex ante analysis, ex post estimates of benefits of the energy intensity policy are on average smaller, and differ by location in both sign and magnitude. Accounting for firm-level heterogeneity in production processes and policy responses, as well as the use of empirically grounded counterfactual baselines, can improve the realism of ex ante analysis and thus provide a more reliable basis for policy design.
机译：可持续性政策往往受到实现多项目标的潜力的动力，例如同时减轻气候变化和能量使用的空气质量影响。前瞻性分析前瞻性地用于通过估计政策对多目标的影响来提供政策决策。相比之下，可以回顾可能具有多种原因的影响的突发分析可以回顾性评估政策的有效性。与同一政策的EX邮政评估很少相比，Ex Ante分析很少。这些比较可以评估前蚂蚁方法中假设的现实主义，并揭示了改善前瞻性分析的机会。我们通过审查中国两个能源政策的案例来说明这种比较的好处。使用前后分析，我们估计两项政策的影响，一个目标能源强度，另一个对SO_2排放量产生量化的定量目标，在两种主要能源密集型工业部门（水泥，钢铁）中的能源使用和污染结果上中国。我们发现，能源强度政策对能源和污染结果的EX后效应平均是非常有限的，而SO_2排放政策的影响很大。与前蚂蚁分析相比，能源强度政策的效益的前后估计平均较小，并且在符号和幅度中的位置差异。占生产过程和政策反应中的坚定性异质性，以及使用经验接地的反事基础，可以改善前蚂蚁分析的现实主义，从而为政策设计提供更可靠的基础。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental Science & Technology》 |2020年第24期|15584-15593|共10页
  • 作者

    Minghao Qiu; Yangqin Weng; Jing Cao; Noelle E. Selin; Valerie J. Karplus;

  • 作者单位

    Institute for Data Systems and Society Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge Massachusetts 02139-4307 United States;

    School of Economics and Management Tsingkua University Beijing 100084 China Sloan School of Management Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge Massachusetts 02142 United States;

    School of Economics and Management Tsinghua University Beijing 100084 China;

    Institute for Data Systems and Society and Department of Earth Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge Massachusetts 02139-4307 United States;

    Department of Engineering and Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh Pennsylvania 15213 United States;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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