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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental Science & Technology >Scenarios for Demand Growth of Metals in Electricity Generation Technologies, Cars, and Electronic Appliances
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Scenarios for Demand Growth of Metals in Electricity Generation Technologies, Cars, and Electronic Appliances

机译：发电技术，汽车和电子设备中金属需求增长的方案

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摘要

This study provides scenarios toward 2050 for the demand of five metals in electricity production, cars, and electronic appliances. The metals considered are copper, tantalum, neodymium, cobalt, and lithium. The study shows how highly technology-specific data on products and material flows can be used in integrated assessment models to assess global resource and metal demand. We use the Shared Socio-economic Pathways as implemented by the IMAGE integrated assessment model as a starting point. This allows us to translate information on the use of electronic appliances, cars, and renewable energy technologies into quantitative data on metal flows, through application of metal content estimates in combination with a dynamic stock model. Results show that total demand for copper, neodymium, and tantalum might increase by a factor of roughly 2 to 3.2, mostly as a result of population and GDP growth. The demand for lithium and cobalt is expected to increase much more, by a factor 10 to more than 20, as a result of future (hybrid) electric car purchases. This means that not just demographics, but also climate policies can strongly increase metal demand. This shows the importance of studying the issues of climate change and resource depletion together, in one modeling framework.
机译：本研究提供了到2050年电力生产，汽车和电子设备中五种金属需求的情景。所考虑的金属为铜，钽，钕，钴和锂。研究表明，如何在集成评估模型中使用高度特定于产品和物料流的技术特定数据来评估全球资源和金属需求。我们以IMAGE综合评估模型实施的共享社会经济途径为起点。这使我们能够通过结合金属含量估算和动态库存模型，将有关电子设备，汽车和可再生能源技术使用的信息转换为金属流量的定量数据。结果表明，对铜，钕和钽的总需求可能会增长约2到3.2，主要是人口和GDP增长的结果。由于未来（混合）电动汽车的购买，锂和钴的需求预计将增长10到20倍以上。这意味着不仅人口统计信息，而且气候政策都可以大大增加金属需求。这表明在一个模型框架中共同研究气候变化和资源枯竭问题的重要性。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental Science & Technology》 |2018年第8期|4950-4959|共10页
  • 作者

    Sebastiaan Deetman; Stefan Pauliuk; Detlef P. van Vuuren; Ester van der Voet; Arnold Tukker;

  • 作者单位

    Institute of Environmental Sciences, Leiden University, P.O. Box 9518, 2300 RA Leiden, The Netherlands;

    Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, D-79106, Germany;

    PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, P.O. Box 30314, 2500 GH The Hague, The Netherlands,Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands;

    Institute of Environmental Sciences, Leiden University, P.O. Box 9518, 2300 RA Leiden, The Netherlands;

    Institute of Environmental Sciences, Leiden University, P.O. Box 9518, 2300 RA Leiden, The Netherlands;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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