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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental Science & Technology >Uncertain Environmental Footprint of Current and Future Battery Electric Vehicles
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Uncertain Environmental Footprint of Current and Future Battery Electric Vehicles

机译：当前和未来电池电动汽车的不确定环境足迹

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摘要

The future environmental impacts of battery electric vehicles (EVs) are very important given their expected dominance in future transport systems. Previous studies have shown these impacts to be highly uncertain, though a detailed treatment of this uncertainty is still lacking. We help to fill this gap by using Monte Carlo and global sensitivity analysis to quantify parametric uncertainty and also consider two additional factors that have not yet been addressed in the field. First, we include changes to driving patterns due to the introduction of autonomous and connected vehicles. Second, we deeply integrate scenario results from the IMAGE integrated assessment model into our life cycle database to include the impacts of changes to the electricity sector on the environmental burdens of producing and recharging future EVs. Future EVs are expected to have 45–78% lower climate change impacts than current EVs. Electricity used for charging is the largest source of variability in results, though vehicle size, lifetime, driving patterns, and battery size also strongly contribute to variability. We also show that it is imperative to consider changes to the electricity sector when calculating upstream impacts of EVs, as without this, results could be overestimated by up to 75%.
机译：鉴于电动汽车在未来交通运输系统中的主导地位，其对未来环境的影响非常重要。先前的研究表明，这些影响是高度不确定的，尽管仍缺乏对此不确定性的详细处理。我们通过使用蒙特卡洛（Monte Carlo）和全局敏感性分析来量化参数不确定性，并考虑该领域中尚未解决的两个其他因素，帮助填补这一空白。首先，由于自动驾驶和联网车辆的引入，我们对驾驶方式进行了更改。其次，我们将来自IMAGE综合评估模型的情景结果深度整合到我们的生命周期数据库中，以涵盖电力行业变化对未来电动汽车生产和充电的环境负担的影响。预计未来的电动汽车对气候变化的影响将比当前的电动汽车低45–78％。用于充电的电力是结果变化的最大来源，尽管车辆尺寸，使用寿命，驾驶方式和电池尺寸也对变化有很大影响。我们还表明，在计算电动汽车的上游影响时，必须考虑电力行业的变化，因为如果不这样做，结果可能会被高估75％。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental Science & Technology》 |2018年第8期|4989-4995|共7页
  • 作者

    Brian Cox; Christopher L Mutel; Christian Bauer; Angelica Mendoza Beltran; Detlef P. van Vuuren;

  • 作者单位

    Paul Scherrer Institut Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis PSI, Villigen 5232, Switzerland;

    Paul Scherrer Institut Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis PSI, Villigen 5232, Switzerland;

    Paul Scherrer Institut Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis PSI, Villigen 5232, Switzerland;

    Leiden University Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden 2300, Netherlands;

    PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague 2594, Netherlands;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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  • 正文语种 eng
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