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Assessing Economic Modulation of Future Critical Materials Use: The Case of Automotive-Related Platinum Group Metals

机译：评估未来关键材料用途的经济调整：以汽车相关的铂族金属为例

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摘要

Platinum-group metals (PGMs) are technological and economic enablers of many industrial processes. This important role, coupled with their limited geographic availability, has led to PGMs being labeled as "critical materials". Studies of future PGM flows have focused on trends within material flows or macroeconomic indicators. We complement the previous work by introducing a novel technoeconomic model of substitution among PGMs within the automotive sector (the largest user of PGMs) reflecting the rational response of firms to changing prices. The results from the model support previous conclusions that PGM use is likely to grow, in some cases strongly, by 2030 (approximately 45% for Pd and 5% for Pt), driven by the increasing sales of automobiles. The model also indicates that PGM-demand growth will be significantly influenced by the future Pt-to-Pd price ratio, with swings of Pt and Pd demand of as much as 25% if the future price ratio shifts higher or lower even if it stays within the historic range. Fortunately, automotive catalysts are one of the more effectively recycled metals. As such, with proper policy support, recycling can serve to meet some of this growing demand.
机译：铂族金属（PGM）是许多工业过程的技术和经济推动因素。这一重要作用加上有限的地域可用性，导致PGM被标记为“关键材料”。对未来铂族金属流量的研究集中于物质流量或宏观经济指标的趋势。我们通过引入一种新颖的替代汽车行业（PGM的最大用户）中的PGM的技术经济模型来补充先前的工作，该模型反映了企业对价格变化的理性反应。该模型的结果支持先前的结论，即到2030年，PGM的使用可能会增长，在某些情况下会强劲增长（Pd约占45％，Pt约占5％），这要归功于汽车销量的增长。该模型还表明，铂族金属需求的增长将受到未来铂金/钯金价格比率的显着影响，即使未来价格比率上下浮动，即使铂金和钯金的价格变动幅度较大或较低，其波动幅度也将高达25％。在历史范围内。幸运的是，汽车催化剂是回收效率更高的金属之一。因此，在适当的政策支持下，回收可以满足这种不断增长的需求。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental Science & Technology》 |2016年第14期|7687-7695|共9页
  • 作者

    Jingshu Zhang; Mark P. Everson; Timothy J. Wallington; Frank R. Field Ⅲ; Richard Roth; Randolph E. Kirchain;

  • 作者单位

    Materials Systems Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, United States;

    Ford Motor Company Research and Innovation Center, Dearborn, Michigan 48121-2053, United States;

    Ford Motor Company Research and Innovation Center, Dearborn, Michigan 48121-2053, United States;

    Materials Systems Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, United States;

    Materials Systems Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, United States;

    Materials Systems Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, United States;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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