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Emissions Reductions from Expanding State-Level Renewable Portfolio Standards

机译：扩大州级可再生能源投资组合标准的排放量减少

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摘要

In the United States, state-level Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) have served as key drivers for the development of new renewable energy. This research presents a method to evaluate emissions reductions and costs attributable to new or expanded RPS programs by integrating a comprehensive economic dispatch model and a renewable project selection model. The latter model minimizes incremental RPS costs, accounting for renewable power purchase agreements (PPAs), displaced generation and capacity costs, and net changes to a state's imports and exports. We test this method on potential expansions to Michigan's RPS, evaluating target renewable penetrations of 10% (business as usual or BAU), 20%, 25%, and 40%, with varying times to completion. Relative to the BAU case, these expanded RPS policies reduce the CO_2 intensity of generation by 13%, 18%, and 33% by 2035, respectively. SO_2 emissions intensity decreased by 13%, 20%, and 34% for each of the three scenarios, while NO_x reductions totaled 12%, 17%, and 31%, relative to the BAU case. For CO_2 and NO_x, absolute reductions in emissions intensity were not as large due to an increasing trend in emissions intensity in the BAU case driven by load growth. Over the study period (2015 to 2035), the absolute CO_2 emissions intensity increased by 1% in the 20% RPS case and decreased by 6% and 22% for the 25% and 40% cases, respectively. Between 26% and 31% of the CO_2, SO_2, and NO_x emissions reductions attributable to the expanded RPS occur in neighboring states, underscoring the challenges quantifying local emissions reductions from state-level energy policies with an interconnected grid. Without federal subsidies, the cost of CO_2 mitigation using an RPS in Michigan is between $28 and $34/t CO_2 when RPS targets are met. The optimal renewable build plan is sensitive to the capacity credit for solar but insensitive to the value for wind power.
机译：在美国，州级可再生能源投资组合标准（RPS）已成为开发新可再生能源的主要驱动力。这项研究提出了一种通过综合全面的经济调度模型和可再生项目选择模型来评估可归因于新的或扩展的RPS计划的减排量和成本的方法。后一种模型最大程度地减少了RPS的增量成本，其中考虑了可再生能源购买协议（PPA），流离失所的发电和装机成本以及该州进出口的净变化。我们测试了该方法是否可以扩展到密歇根州的RPS，评估了10％（照常营业或BAU），20％，25％和40％的目标可再生能源普及率，并且完成时间各不相同。相对于BAU案例，到2035年，这些扩展的RPS政策分别将CO_2的产生强度降低了13％，18％和33％。相对于BAU案例，在这三种情况下，SO_2排放强度分别降低了13％，20％和34％，而NO_x的降低总计分别为12％，17％和31％。对于CO_2和NO_x，由于负荷增长驱动的BAU案例中排放强度的增加趋势，排放强度的绝对减少没有那么大。在研究期间（2015年至2035年），RPS 20％情况下的绝对CO_2排放强度增加了1％，25％和40％情况下分别减少了6％和22％。扩展的RPS导致的CO_2，SO_2和NO_x排放量减少了26％至31％，发生在邻国，这凸显了量化具有互连电网的州级能源政策中的局部减排量的挑战。如果没有联邦补贴，在达到RPS目标时，在密歇根州使用RPS缓解CO_2的成本在$ 28至$ 34 / t CO_2之间。最佳的可再生能源建设计划对太阳能的信用额度很敏感，但对风电的价值却不敏感。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental Science & Technology》 |2015年第9期|5318-5325|共8页
  • 作者

    Jeremiah X. Johnson; Joshua Novacheck;

  • 作者单位

    Center for Sustainable Systems, School of Natural Resources & Environment, University of Michigan, 440 Church Street, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109, United States;

    Center for Sustainable Systems, School of Natural Resources & Environment, University of Michigan, 440 Church Street, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109, United States,Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109, United States;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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