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Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainty in Estimated Microcystin Concentrations from the ELISA Method

机译：通过ELISA方法定量和减少估计的微囊藻毒素浓度的不确定性

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摘要

We discuss the uncertainty associated with a commonly used method for measuring the concentration of microcystin, a group of toxins associated with cyanobacterial blooms. Such uncertainty is rarely reported and accounted for in important drinking water management decisions. Using monitoring data from Ohio Environmental Protection Agency and from City of Toledo, we document the sources of measurement uncertainty and recommend a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach for reducing the measurement uncertainty. Our analysis suggests that (1) much of the uncertainty is a result of the highly uncertain "standard curve" developed during each test and (2) the uncertainty can be reduced by pooling raw test data from multiple tests. Based on these results, we suggest that estimation uncertainty can be effectively reduced through the effort of either (1) regional regulatory agencies by sharing and combining raw test data from regularly scheduled microcystin monitoring program or (2) the manufacturer of the testing kit by conducting additional tests as part of an effort to improve the testing kit.
机译：我们讨论了与测量微囊藻毒素浓度有关的不确定性，微囊藻毒素是与蓝藻水华相关的一组毒素。这种不确定性很少被报道，并在重要的饮用水管理决策中得到解决。利用俄亥俄州环境保护局和托莱多市的监测数据，我们记录了测量不确定度的来源，并推荐了一种贝叶斯分层建模方法来减少测量不确定度。我们的分析表明，（1）许多不确定性是每个测试过程中产生的高度不确定性“标准曲线”的结果；（2）通过合并来自多个测试的原始测试数据可以减少不确定性。根据这些结果，我们建议，可以通过（1）区域监管机构通过共享和合并来自定期计划的微囊藻毒素监测计划的原始测试数据来有效降低估计的不确定性，或者（2）通过执行其他测试，作为改进测试套件的一部分。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental Science & Technology》 |2015年第24期|14221-14229|共9页
  • 作者

    Song S. Qian; Justin D. Chaffin; Mark R. DuFour; Jessica J. Sherman; Phoenix C. Golnick; Christopher D. Collier; Stephanie A. Nummer; Michaela G. Margida;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Environmental Sciences, The University of Toledo, Toledo, Ohio 43606, United States;

    Franz Theodore Stone Laboratory, The Ohio State University, Put-in-Bay, Ohio 43456, United States;

    Department of Environmental Sciences, The University of Toledo, Toledo, Ohio 43606, United States;

    Department of Environmental Sciences, The University of Toledo, Toledo, Ohio 43606, United States;

    Department of Environmental Sciences, The University of Toledo, Toledo, Ohio 43606, United States;

    Department of Environmental Sciences, The University of Toledo, Toledo, Ohio 43606, United States;

    Department of Environmental Sciences, The University of Toledo, Toledo, Ohio 43606, United States;

    Department of Environmental Sciences, The University of Toledo, Toledo, Ohio 43606, United States;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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  • 正文语种 eng
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