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Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Assessment on Food Consumption Utilizing a New Scenario Framework

机译：利用新的情景框架对气候变化对食品消费的影响和适应性评估

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摘要

We assessed the impacts of climate change and agricultural autonomous adaptation measures (changes in crop variety and planting dates) on food consumption and risk of hunger considering uncertainties in socioeconomic and climate conditions by using a new scenario framework. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and estimated the impacts through 2050 based on future assumptions of socioeconomic and climate conditions. We used three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways as future population and gross domestic products, four Representative Concentration Pathways as a greenhouse gas emissions constraint, and eight General Circulation Models to estimate climate conditions. We found that (ⅰ) the adaptation measures are expected to significantly lower the risk of hunger resulting from climate change under various socioeconomic and climate conditions, (ⅱ) population and economic development had a greater impact than climate conditions for risk of hunger at least throughout 2050, but climate change was projected to have notable impacts, even in the strong emission mitigation scenarios, (ⅲ) The impact on hunger risk varied across regions because levels of calorie intake, climate change impacts and land scarcity varied by region.
机译：考虑到社会经济和气候状况的不确定性，我们考虑了社会经济和气候条件的不确定性，评估了气候变化和农业自主适应措施（作物品种和播种日期的变化）对粮食消费和饥饿风险的影响。我们结合了全球可计算的一般均衡模型和作物模型（M-GAEZ），并根据未来对社会经济和气候条件的假设，估算了到2050年的影响。我们使用了三种共享的社会经济途径作为未来的人口和国内生产总值，使用了四种代表性的集中途径作为温室气体的排放限制，并且使用了八种一般循环模型来估算气候条件。我们发现（ⅰ）在各种社会经济和气候条件下，适应措施有望显着降低由气候变化导致的饥饿风险；（ⅱ）人口和经济发展至少在整个过程中对气候的影响比饥饿对气候的影响更大。到2050年，但预计气候变化将产生显着影响，即使在大力减排的情况下也是如此。（ⅲ）对饥饿风险的影响因地区而异，因为卡路里摄入量，气候变化影响和土地稀缺程度因地区而异。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental Science & Technology》 |2014年第1期|438-445|共8页
  • 作者

    Tomoko Hasegawa; Shinichiro Fujimori; Yonghee Shin; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Toshihiko Masui; Akemi Tanaka;

  • 作者单位

    Center for Social & Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan;

    Center for Social & Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan;

    Climate Research Department, APEC Climate Center, 12 Centum 7-ro, Haeundae-gu, Busan, 612-020, Republic of Korea;

    Center for Social & Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan;

    Center for Social & Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan;

    Graduate School of Environmental Science, Hokkaido University, N10, WS, Sapporo, Hokkaido, 060-0810, Japan;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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