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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental Science & Technology >An LUR/BME Framework to Estimate PM_(2.5) Explained by on Road Mobile and Stationary Sources
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An LUR/BME Framework to Estimate PM_(2.5) Explained by on Road Mobile and Stationary Sources

机译：用于估算道路移动和固定源中的PM_（2.5）的LUR / BME框架

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摘要

Knowledge of particulate matter concentrations ＜2.5 μm in diameter (PM_(2.5)) across the United States is limited due to sparse monitoring across space and time. Epidemiological studies need accurate exposure estimates in order to properly investigate potential morbidity and mortality. Previous works have used geostatistics and land use regression (LUR) separately to quantify exposure. This work combines both methods by incorporating a large area variability LUR model that accounts for on road mobile emissions and stationary source emissions along with data that take into account incompleteness of PM_(2.5) monitors into the modern geostatistical Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) framework to estimate PM_(2.5) across the United States from 1999 to 2009. A cross-validation was done to determine the improvement of the estimate due to the LUR incorporation into BME. These results were applied to known diseases to determine predicted mortality coming from total PM_(2.5) as well as PM_(2.5) explained by major contributing sources. This method showed a mean squared error reduction of over 21.89% oversimple kriging. PM_(2.5) explained by on road mobile emissions and stationary emissions contributed to nearly 568 090 and 306 316 deaths, respectively, across the United States from 1999 to 2007.
机译：由于对空间和时间的稀疏监控，在美国范围内对直径＜2.5μm（PM_（2.5））的颗粒物浓度的了解有限。流行病学研究需要准确的接触估计，以便正确调查潜在的发病率和死亡率。先前的工作分别使用地统计学和土地利用回归（LUR）来量化暴露。这项工作通过将考虑道路移动排放和固定源排放的大面积可变性LUR模型以及考虑了PM_（2.5）监测器不完整性的数据合并到现代地统计贝叶斯最大熵（BME）框架中，从而将两种方法结合起来。估计1999年至2009年全美的PM_（2.5）。进行了交叉验证，以确定由于LUR纳入BME而导致的估计值的改进。将这些结果应用于已知疾病，以确定总PM_（2.5）以及主要贡献来源解释的PM_（2.5）的预测死亡率。这种方法显示出过简单的克里金法的均方误差降低了21.89％。从1999年到2007年，在美国，PM_（2.5）在道路上的移动排放和固定排放分别导致近568 090和306 316例死亡。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental Science & Technology》 |2014年第3期|1736-1744|共9页
  • 作者

    Jeanette M. Reyes; Marc L. Serre;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Gillings School of Global Public Health, 1303 Michael Hooker Research Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599-7431, United States;

    Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Gillings School of Global Public Health, 1303 Michael Hooker Research Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599-7431, United States;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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