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Assessing Recovery from Acidification of European Surface Waters in the Year 2010: Evaluation of Projections Made with the MAGIC Model in 1995

机译:评估2010年欧洲地表水酸化的恢复:1995年使用MAGIC模型所作的预测评估

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摘要

In 1999 we used the MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchments) model to project acidification of acid-sensitive European surface waters in the year 2010, given implementation of the Gothenburg Protocol to the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP). A total of 202 sites in 10 regions in Europe were studied. These forecasts can now be compared with measurements for the year 2010, to give a "ground truth' evaluation of the model. The prerequisite for this test is that the actual sulfur and nitrogen deposition decreased from 199S to 2010 by the same amount as that used to drive the model forecasts; this was largely the case for sulfur, but less so for nitrogen, and the simulated surface water [NO_3~-] reflected this difference. For most of the sites, predicted surface water recovery from acidification for the year 2010 is very dose to the actual recovery observed from measured data, as recovery is predominantly driven by reductions in sulfur deposition. Overall these results show that MAGIC successfully predicts future water chemistry given known changes in acid deposition.
机译:考虑到《远距离越境空气污染公约》的哥德堡议定书的实施,我们在1999年使用MAGIC(集水区地下水的酸化模型)模型来预测对酸敏感的欧洲地表水在2010年的酸化。 。对欧洲10个地区的202个站点进行了研究。现在可以将这些预测值与2010年的测量值进行比较,以对模型进行“地面真实性”评估。该测试的前提条件是实际的硫和氮沉积量从199S减少到2010年,与使用的减少量相同以驱动模型预测;硫主要是这种情况,而氮则较少,模拟的地表水[NO_3〜-]反映了这种差异。对于大多数站点,预测了2010年酸化后的地表水回收率总体而言,这些结果表明,鉴于酸沉积的已知变化,MAGIC成功地预测了未来的水化学反应,这是从测量数据观察到的实际回收率非常重要的,因为回收率主要是由硫沉积的减少驱动的。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental Science & Technology》 |2014年第22期|13280-13288|共9页
  • 作者单位

    The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, U.K.;

    Norwegian Institute for Water Research, 0349 Oslo, Norway;

    The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, U.K.;

    The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, U.K.;

    Trent University, Peterborough, Ontario K9J 7B8, Canada;

    Environment Centre Wales, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bangor LL57 2UW, U.K.;

    Environment Centre Wales, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bangor LL57 2UW, U.K.;

    Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), FI-00251 Helsinki, Finland;

    Czech Geological Survey, 118 21 Prague, Czech Republic;

    Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford OX10 8BB, U.K.;

    Czech Geological Survey, 118 21 Prague, Czech Republic;

    Institute of Hydrobiology, Biology Centre ASCR, 370 05 Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic;

    Czech Geological Survey, 118 21 Prague, Czech Republic;

    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, SE-411 33 Gothenburg, Sweden;

    Coordination Centre for Effects, RTVM, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands;

    Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, Edinburgh EH9 3JZ, U.K.;

    Institute of Ecosystem Study, CNR, 28922 Verbania, Italy;

    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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