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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental Science & Technology >Effectiveness of Mitigation Measures in Reducing Future Primary Particulate Matter Emissions from On-Road Vehicle Exhaust
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Effectiveness of Mitigation Measures in Reducing Future Primary Particulate Matter Emissions from On-Road Vehicle Exhaust

机译：缓解措施在减少未来道路车辆废气中主要颗粒物排放中的有效性

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摘要

This work evaluates the effectiveness of on-road primary particulate matter emission reductions that can be achieved by long-term vehicle scrappage and retrofit measures on regional and global levels. Scenario analysis shows that scrappage can provide significant emission reductions as soon as the measures begin, whereas retrofit provides greater emission reductions in later years, when more advanced technologies become available in most regions. Reductions are compared with a baseline that already accounts for implementation of clean vehicle standards. The greatest global emission reductions from a scrappage program occur 5 to 10 years after its introduction and can reach as much as 7096. The greatest reductions with retrofit occur around 2030 and range from 16-31%. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate how uncertainties in the composition of the vehicle fleet affect predicted reductions. Scrappage and retrofit reduce global emissions by 22-60% and 15-31%, respectively, within 95% confidence intervals, under a midrange scenario in the year 2030. The simulations provide guidance about which strategies are most effective for specific regions. Retrofit is preferable for high-income regions. For regions where early emission standards are in place, scrappage is suggested, followed by retrofit after more advanced emission standards are introduced. The early implementation of advanced emission standards is recommended for Western and Eastern Africa.
机译：这项工作评估了在区域和全球范围内通过长期的报废和改造措施可以实现的减少道路一次颗粒物排放的有效性。方案分析表明，报废措施一开始就可以大幅度减少排放，而在大多数地区可以使用更先进的技术时，改造可以在以后几年实现更大的减排。将减排量与已经考虑清洁车辆标准实施的基准进行比较。报废计划引入后，其全球排放量最大减少量为5到10年，最高可达到7096。改造后最大的减少量为2030年左右，范围为16-31％。蒙特卡洛模拟用于评估车队组成的不确定性如何影响预计的减少量。在2030年的中端情景下，报废和改造可以在95％的置信区间内分别减少22-60％和15-31％的全球排放量。模拟为哪种策略对特定区域最有效提供了指导。对于高收入地区，最好进行改造。对于已建立早期排放标准的地区，建议报废，然后在引入更先进的排放标准后进行翻新。建议西部和东部非洲早日实施先进的排放标准。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental Science & Technology》 |2014年第24期|14455-14463|共9页
  • 作者

    Fang Yan; Tami C. Bond; David G. Streets;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois 61801, United States,Energy Systems Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States,Computation Institute, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637, United States;

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois 61801, United States;

    Energy Systems Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States,Computation Institute, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637, United States;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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  • 正文语种 eng
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