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Global Health Impacts of Future Aviation Emissions Under Alternative Control Scenarios

机译：替代控制方案下未来航空排放对全球健康的影响

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摘要

There is strong evidence of an association between fine particulate matter less than 2.5 μm (PM_(2.5)) in aerodynamic diameter and adverse health outcomes. This study analyzes the global excess mortality attributable to the aviation sector in the present (2006) and in the future (three 2050 scenarios) using the integrated exposure response model that was also used in the 2010 Global Burden of Disease assessment. The PM_(2.5) concentrations for the present and future scenarios were calculated using aviation emission inventories developed by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center and a global chemistry-climate model. We found that while excess mortality due to the aviation sector emissions is greater in 2050 compared to 2006, improved fuel policies (technology and operations improvements yielding smaller increases in fuel bum compared to 2006, and conversion to fully sustainable fuels) in 2050 could lead to 72% fewer deaths for adults 25 years and older than a 2050 scenario with no fuel improvements. Among the four health outcomes examined, ischemic heart disease was the greatest cause of death. Our results suggest that implementation of improved fuel policies can have substantial human health benefits.
机译：有强有力的证据表明，空气动力学直径小于2.5μm（PM_（2.5））的细颗粒物与不良健康后果之间存在关联。本研究使用2010年全球疾病负担评估中使用的综合暴露响应模型，分析了当前（2006年）和未来（三个2050年情景）可归因于航空部门的全球超额死亡率。使用Volpe国家运输系统中心开发的航空排放清单和全球化学气候模型来计算当前和未来情景中的PM_（2.5）浓度。我们发现，尽管2050年航空业排放造成的超额死亡率比2006年要高，但改善的燃油政策（技术和运营改进与2006年相比，燃油消耗量的增加较小，并且转换为完全可持续的燃油）可能导致25岁及以上成年人的死亡率比2050年情景低了72％，而没有改善燃料。在所检查的四项健康结果中，缺血性心脏病是最大的死亡原因。我们的结果表明，实施改进的燃油政策可以对人类健康产生重大影响。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental Science & Technology》 |2014年第24期|14659-14667|共9页
  • 作者

    Haruka Morita; Suijia Yang; Nadine Unger; Patrick L. Kinney;

  • 作者单位

    Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th Street, New York, New York 10032, United States;

    Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th Street, New York, New York 10032, United States;

    School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, 195 Prospect Street, New Haven, Connecticut 06511, United States;

    Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th Street, New York, New York 10032, United States;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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  • 正文语种 eng
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