...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Environmental Science & Technology >Continuous Bayesian Network for Studying the Causal Links between Phosphorus Loading and Plankton Patterns in Lake Simcoe, Ontario, Canada
【24h】

Continuous Bayesian Network for Studying the Causal Links between Phosphorus Loading and Plankton Patterns in Lake Simcoe, Ontario, Canada

机译：连续贝叶斯网络用于研究加拿大安大略省辛科湖的磷负荷与浮游生物模式之间的因果关系

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

An ecosystem perspective to restoring beneficial uses in Areas of Concern can be interpreted as a shift from the traditional elucidation of simple cause-effect relationships to a multicausal way of thinking that more effectively accommodates ecosystem complexity. This holistic management paradigm has also pervaded the contemporary ecological modeling practice, making compelling the adoption of more sophisticated ecosystem modeling tools. In this study, our primary objective is to develop a Bayesian hierarchical network of simple ecological models for Lake Simcoe, Ontario, Canada, aiming to establish a realistic representation of the causal connections among exogenous nutrient loading, ambient nutrient conditions, and epilimnetic plankton dynamics. In particular, we used a spatially explicit simple mass-balance model forced with idealized sinusoidal loading to predict total phosphorus concentrations. A structural equation model was then used to delineate the interplay among nutrients, ambient light conditions, phytoplankton, and herbivorous biomass. Our analysis highlights the strength of the causal linkages between total phosphorus and water clarity with phytoplankton as well as the capacity of zooplankton grazing to modulate the algal standing crop. Our Bayesian network is also used to examine the exceedance frequency of threshold values for total phosphorus (15 μg/L) and chlorophyll a (4 μg/L) concentrations under scenarios of phosphorus loading reduction. Our study suggests that a 15% phosphorus loading decrease will still result in >25% violations of the 4 μg chk/L value in the two embayments of Lake Simcoe (Cook's Bay and Kempenfelt Bay). The TP levels will decrease in response to the exogenous loading reductions and this improvement will be primarily manifested in the northcentral segments of the system.
机译：从生态系统角度恢复关注区域中有益用途的观点可以解释为从传统的简单因果关系阐明向更有效地适应生态系统复杂性的多因果关系转变。这种整体管理范式也已经渗透到当代的生态建模实践中，促使人们采用更复杂的生态系统建模工具。在这项研究中，我们的主要目标是为加拿大安大略省辛科湖开发简单的生态模型的贝叶斯分层网络，旨在建立外生养分负荷，环境养分条件和，游浮游生物动力学之间因果关系的现实表示。特别是，我们使用理想化正弦曲线载荷强制的空间显式简单质量平衡模型来预测总磷浓度。然后使用结构方程模型描述养分，环境光照条件，浮游植物和草食生物量之间的相互作用。我们的分析突出了总磷与浮游植物的水净度之间因果联系的强度，以及放牧浮游动物调节藻类立足作物的能力。在减少磷负荷的情况下，我们的贝叶斯网络还用于检查总磷（15μg/ L）和叶绿素a（4μg/ L）浓度阈值的超出频率。我们的研究表明，磷的含量降低15％仍将导致Simcoe湖两个库克湾（库克湾和肯彭菲特湾）的4μgchk / L值超出25％。总磷水平会因外源负荷的减少而降低，这种改善将主要体现在系统的北中部地区。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Environmental Science & Technology》 |2012年第13期|p.7283-7292|共10页
  • 作者

    Alexey Gudimov; Eavan OConnor; Maria Dittrich; Hamdi Jarjanazi; Michelle E. Palmer; Eleanor Stainsby; Jennifer G. Winter; Joelle D. Young; George B. Arhonditsis;

  • 作者单位

    Ecological Modeling Laboratory, Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario,Canada, MIC 1A4;

    Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority, Newmarket, Ontario, Canada, L3Y 4X1;

    Ecological Modeling Laboratory, Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario,Canada, MIC 1A4;

    Great Lakes Water Monitoring and Reporting Section, Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M9P 3V6;

    Great Lakes Water Monitoring and Reporting Section, Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M9P 3V6;

    Great Lakes Water Monitoring and Reporting Section, Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M9P 3V6;

    Great Lakes Water Monitoring and Reporting Section, Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M9P 3V6;

    Great Lakes Water Monitoring and Reporting Section, Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M9P 3V6;

    Ecological Modeling Laboratory, Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario,Canada, MIC 1A4;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号