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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental Science & Technology >Expert Judgments about RD&D and the Future of Nuclear Energy
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Expert Judgments about RD&D and the Future of Nuclear Energy

机译：关于研发与核能未来的专家判断

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摘要

Probabilistic estimates of the cost and performance of future nuclear energy systems under different scenarios of government research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) spending were obtained from 30 U.S. and 30 European nuclear technology experts. We used a novel elicitation approach which combined individual and group dictation. With no change from current RD&D funding levels, experts on average expected current (Gen. III/III+) designs to be somewhat more expensive in 2030 than they were in 2010, and they expected the next generation of designs (Gen. IV) to be more expensive still as of 2030. Projected costs of proposed small modular reactors (SMRs) were similar to those of Gen. IV systems. The experts almost unanimously recommended large increases in government support for nuclear RD&D (generally 2-3 times current spending). The majority expected that such RD&D would have only a modest effect on cost, but would improve performance in other areas, such as safety, waste management, and uranium resource utilization. The U.S. and E.U. experts were in relative agreement regarding how government RD&D funds should be allocated, placing particular focus on very high temperature reactors, sodium-cooled fast reactors, fuels and materials, and fuel cycle technologies.
机译：从30名美国和30名欧洲核技术专家处获得了在政府研究，开发和示范（RD＆D）支出的不同情况下，未来核能系统成本和性能的概率估计。我们使用了一种新颖的启发方法，将个人和小组的命令结合在一起。由于目前的RD＆D资金水平没有变化，因此专家平均预期的当前（第III / III +代）设计在2030年的价格将比2010年贵一些，并且他们预计下一代设计（第IV代）将是到2030年仍将更加昂贵。拟议的小型模块化反应堆（SMR）的预计成本与第四代系统的成本相似。专家们几乎一致建议政府大幅增加对核RD＆D的支持（通常是当前支出的2-3倍）。多数人认为，这种RD＆D只会对成本产生适度的影响，但会改善其他领域的性能，例如安全性，废物管理和铀资源利用。美国和欧盟专家们在如何分配政府研发资金方面达成了相对协议，特别关注了高温反应堆，钠冷快堆，燃料和材料以及燃料循环技术。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental Science & Technology》 |2012年第21期|11497-11504|共8页
  • 作者

    Laura D. Anadon; Valentina Bosetti; Matthew Bunn; Michela Catenacci; Audrey Lee;

  • 作者单位

    John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 79 John F. Kennedy Street, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 02138, United States;

    Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Corso Magenta 63, 20123, Milan, Italy;

    John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 79 John F. Kennedy Street, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 02138, United States;

    Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Corso Magenta 63, 20123, Milan, Italy;

    John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 79 John F. Kennedy Street, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 02138, United States,California Public Utilities Commission, SOS Van Ness Avenue, San Francisco, California, 94102, United States;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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  • 正文语种 eng
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