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Patterns of Iron Use in Societal Evolution

机译：社会演变中铁的使用方式

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摘要

A dynamic material flow model was used to analyze the patterns of iron stocks in use for six industrialized countries. The contemporary iron stock in the remaining countries was estimated assuming that they follow a similar pattern of iron stock per economic activity. Iron stocks have reached a plateau of about 8-12 tons per capita in the United States, France, and the United Kingdom, but not yet in Japan, Canada, and Australia. The global average iron stock was determined to be 2.7 tons per capita. An increase to a level of 10 tons over the next decades would deplete about the currently identified reserves. A subsequent saturation would open a long-term potential to dramatically shift resource use from primary to secondary sources. The observed saturation pattern implies that developing countries with rapidly growing stocks have a lower potential for recycling domestic scrap and hence for greenhouse gas emissions saving than industrialized countries, a fact that has not been addressed sufficiently in the climate change debate.
机译：使用动态物料流模型来分析六个工业化国家所使用的铁库存模式。估计其余国家/地区的当代铁库存，假设它们在每种经济活动中遵循类似的铁库存模式。在美国，法国和英国，铁库存已达到人均约8-12吨的稳定水平，但在日本，加拿大和澳大利亚尚未达到。确定的全球平均铁库存量为人均2.7吨。在接下来的几十年中增加到10吨的水平将耗尽目前确定的储量。随后的饱和将打开长期潜力，将资源使用从主要来源急剧转移到次要来源。观察到的饱和模式表明，与工业化国家相比，库存迅速增长的发展中国家与国内工业化国家相比，循环利用国内废料和因此节省温室气体的潜力较低，这一事实在气候变化辩论中并未得到充分解决。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental Science & Technology》 |2011年第1期|p.182-188|共7页
  • 作者

    DANIEL B. MOLLER; TAO WANG; BENJAMIN DUVAL;

  • 作者单位

    Center for Industrial Ecology, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, 205 Prospect Street, New Haven, Connecticut 06511, United States,Department of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, S.P. Andersens veg 5,7491 Trondheim, Norway;

    Center for Industrial Ecology, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, 205 Prospect Street, New Haven, Connecticut 06511, United States,Department of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, S.P. Andersens veg 5,7491 Trondheim, Norway;

    Center for Industrial Ecology, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, 205 Prospect Street, New Haven, Connecticut 06511, United States;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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