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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental Science & Technology >Minimizing Risks from Spilled Oil to Ecosystem Services Using Influence Diagrams: The Deepwater Horizon Spill Response
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Minimizing Risks from Spilled Oil to Ecosystem Services Using Influence Diagrams: The Deepwater Horizon Spill Response

机译：使用影响图最大限度地降低从溢油到生态系统服务的风险：深水地平线溢油事故响应

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摘要

Decision science tools can be used in evaluating response options and making inferences on risks to ecosystem services (ES) from ecological disasters, Influence diagrams (IDs) are probabilistic networks that explicitly represent the decisions related to a problem and their influence on desired or undesired outcomes. To examine how IDs might be useful in probabilistic risk management for spill response efforts, an ID was constructed to display the potential interactions between exposure events and the trade-offs between costs and ES impacts from spilled oil and response decisions in the DWH spill event. Quantitative knowledge was not formally incorporated but an ID platform for doing this was examined. Probabilities were assigned for conditional relationships in the ID and scenarios examining the impact of different response actions on components of spilled oil were investigated in hypothetical scenarios. Given the structure of the ID, potential knowledge gaps included understanding of the movement of oil, the ecological risk of different spill-related stressors to key receptors (e.g., endangered species, fisheries), and the need for stakeholder valuation of the ES benefits that could be impacted by a spilL Framing the Deepwater Horizon problem domain in an ID conceptualized important variables and relationships that could be optimally accounted for in preparing and managing responses in future spills. These features of the developed IDs may assist in better investigating the uncertainty, costs, and the tradeoffs if large-scale, deep ocean spills were to occur again.
机译：决策科学工具可用于评估响应选项并推断生态灾难对生态系统服务（ES）的风险。影响图（ID）是概率网络，可明确表示与问题相关的决策及其对预期或不良结果的影响。为了检查ID在泄漏响应工作的概率风险管理中如何有用，构建了一个ID以显示暴露事件之间的潜在相互作用以及DWH泄漏事件中因溢油和响应决策而造成的成本与ES影响之间的权衡。尚未正式纳入定量知识，但已研究了用于实现此目的的ID平台。在ID中为条件关系分配了概率，并在假设的方案中研究了检查不同响应动作对溢油成分的影响的方案。考虑到ID的结构，潜在的知识缺口包括对石油的流动的理解，与泄漏相关的不同压力源对主要受体（例如，濒危物种，渔业）的生态风险以及利益相关者对ES收益的评估的需要，可能会受到ID中的“将Deepwater Horizo​​n问题域构筑成框架”的影响，这些概念化的重要变量和关系可以在准备和管理未来泄漏的响应中得到最佳考虑。如果要再次发生大规模的深海溢漏，已开发的ID的这些特征可能有助于更好地调查不确定性，成本和权衡取舍。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental Science & Technology》 |2011年第18期|p.7631-7639|共9页
  • 作者

    John F. Carriger; Mace G. Barron;

  • 作者单位

    National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Gulf Ecology Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,1 Sabine Island Drive, Gulf Breeze, Florida 32561, United States;

    National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Gulf Ecology Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,1 Sabine Island Drive, Gulf Breeze, Florida 32561, United States;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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  • 正文语种 eng
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