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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental Science & Technology >A 'Carbonizing Dragon': China's Fast Growing CO2 Emissions Revisited
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A 'Carbonizing Dragon': China's Fast Growing CO2 Emissions Revisited

机译：“碳化龙”：重新审视中国快速增长的二氧化碳排放量

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摘要

China's annual CO2 emissions grew by around 4 billion tonnes between 1992 and 2007. More than 70% of this increase occurred between 2002 and 2007. While growing export demand contributed more than 50% to the CO2 emission growth between 2002 and 2005, capital investments have been responsible for 61% of emission growth in China between 2005 and 2007. We use structural decomposition analysis to identify the drivers for China's emission growth between 1992 and 2007, with special focus on the period 2002 to 2007 when growth was most rapid. In contrast to previous analysis, we find that efficiency improvements have largely offset additional CO2 emissions from increased final consumption between 2002 and 2007. The strong increases in emissions growth between 2002 and 2007 are instead explained by structural change in China's economy, which has newly emerged as the third major emission driver. This structural change is mainly the result of capital investments, in particular, the growing prominence of construction services and their carbon intensive supply chain. By closing the model for capital investment, we can now show that the majority of emissions embodied in capital investment are utilized for domestic household and government consumption (35-49% and 19-36%, respectively) with smaller amounts for the production of exports (21-31%). Urbanization and the associated changes in lifestyle are shown to be more important than other socio-demographic drivers like the decreasing household size or growing population. We argue that mitigation efforts will depend on the future development of these key drivers, particularly capital investments which dictate future mitigation costs.
机译：在1992年至2007年期间，中国每年的CO2排放量增长了约40亿吨。其中70％以上发生在2002年至2007年之间。虽然出口需求的增长在2002年至2005年间对CO2排放量的增长贡献了50％以上，在2005年至2007年期间，中国的碳排放量占中国排放增长的61％。我们使用结构分解分析确定了1992年至2007年间中国排放增长的驱动力，特别着重于2002年至2007年增长最快的时期。与以前的分析相比，我们发现效率的提高已在很大程度上抵消了2002年至2007年最终消费增加带来的额外CO2排放。2002年至2007年排放增长的强劲增长反而是由中国经济的结构变化所解释的。作为第三大排放驱动因素。这种结构性变化主要是资本投资的结果，尤其是建筑服务及其碳密集型供应链日益突出的结果。通过关闭资本投资模型，我们现在可以证明，资本投资中包含的大部分排放用于家庭和政府消费（分别为35-49％和19-36％），而较小的数量用于出口生产（21-31％）。事实证明，城市化及相关的生活方式变化比其他社会人口驱动因素（如家庭人数减少或人口增长）更重要。我们认为，缓解工作将取决于这些关键驱动因素的未来发展，尤其是决定未来缓解成本的资本投资。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental Science & Technology》 |2011年第21期|p.9144-9153|共10页
  • 作者

    Jan C. Minx; Giovanni Baiocchi; Glen P. Peters; Christopher L Weber; Dabo Guan; Klaus Hubacek;

  • 作者单位

    Department Economics of Climate Change, Department Sustainable Engineering, Technical University Berlin, D-10623 Berlin,Germany,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (P1K), D-14412 Potsdam, Germany;

    Norwich Business School, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, NR4 7TJ Norwich, United Kingdom;

    Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo (CICERO), PB 1129 Blindern, Oslo, Norway;

    Science and Technology Policy Institute, Washington, D.C. 20010, United States,Department for Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA15213, United States;

    Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang, 110016, China,School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom,St Edmund's College, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB3 0BN, United Kingdom.;

    Department of Geography, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742, United States;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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