Investigating the Global Fate of DDT: Model Evaluation and Estimation of Future Trends

URS   SCHENKER; MARTIN   SCHERINGER; KONRAD   HUNGERBUEHLER

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Investigating the Global Fate of DDT: Model Evaluation and Estimation of Future Trends

机译：调查滴滴涕的全球命运：模型评估和未来趋势估计

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The global environmental fate model CliMoChem has been used to calculate concentrations of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroet-hane (DDT) and its degradation products in the environment. To this end, best available physicochemical properties of DDT have been assembled, and a realistic DDT emission scenario covering the period from 1940 to 2005 has been generated. Results from the model are temporally and geographically resolved concentrations of DDT, dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE), and dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane (DDD) in various environmental media. To confirm model results with measurements, we have developed a method for a qualitative and quantitative comparison of model and measurements. The agreement between the model and measurements is good, especially in the temporal dimension, and in the soil and air compartments. Using estimated DDT emissions for the future, we predict environmental concentrations in the next 50 years. The results show that, if emissions continue at a low level, concentrations will decrease by a factor of 30 in temperate regions and by a factor of 100 in the Arctic, as compared to the concentrations in the 1960s and 1970s. In the tropics, levels decrease by a factor of 5 to 10, only. Whereas environmental concentrations and estimated future emissions are at steady state after about 10 years in temperate and tropical regions, this takes over 50 years in the Arctic.

机译：全球环境归宿模型CliMoChem已用于计算环境中二氯二苯基三氯乙烷（DDT）及其降解产物的浓度。为此，已收集了最佳的滴滴涕理化特性，并得出了涵盖1940年至2005年期间的实际滴滴涕排放情景。该模型的结果是各种环境介质中DDT，二氯二苯基二氯乙烷（DDE）和二氯二苯基二氯乙烷（DDD）的时间和地理解析浓度。为了通过测量确认模型结果，我们开发了一种对模型和测量进行定性和定量比较的方法。模型和测量值之间的一致性很好，尤其是在时间维度上以及在土壤和空气隔室中。使用未来的估计DDT排放量，我们可以预测未来50年的环境浓度。结果表明，与1960年代和1970年代的浓度相比，如果排放继续处于低水平，那么在温带地区的浓度将降低30倍，在北极地区将降低100倍。在热带地区，水平面仅下降5到10倍。在温带和热带地区大约10年后，环境浓度和估计的未来排放量处于稳定状态，而在北极地区则需要50年以上的时间。

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《Environmental Science & Technology》 |2008年第4期|1178-1184|共页
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URS SCHENKER; MARTIN SCHERINGER; KONRAD HUNGERBUEHLER;
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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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Investigating the Global Fate of DDT: Model Evaluation and Estimation of Future Trends

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