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Estimating Ecological Thresholds for Phosphorus in the Everglades

机译：估算大沼泽地磷的生态阈值

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摘要

The Florida Everglades, a wetland of international importance, has been undergoing a significant shift in its native flora and fauna due to excessive total phosphorus (TP) loadings (an average of 147 t per annum from 1995 to 2004) and an elevated mean TP concentration (69 μg L~(-1) of TP in 2004) from agricultural runoff and Lake Okeechobee outflow despite the use of 16000 ha of stormwater treatment areas. Here, we present a Bayesian changepoint analysis of long-term experimental research and show that exceeding a surface water geometric mean TP threshold concentration of 15 μg L~(-1) causes an ecological imbalance in algal, macrophyte, and macroinvertebrate assemblages as well as slough community structure. A phosphorus threshold for all trophic levels may be more realistic and protective when presented as a threshold zone (12-15 μg L~(-1)) because estimates of uncertainty must be utilized to accurately define TP thresholds, which change with seasons and water depths. Most interior areas of the Everglades are currently at or below this threshold zone, but the exterior areas near inflow structures (except for the Everglades National Park) are presently receiving double or triple the proposed threshold. Our Bayesian approach, used here to address ecological imbalance along nutrient gradients, is applicable to determining thresholds and stable states in other aquatic ecosystems.
机译：佛罗里达大沼泽地是国际上具有重要意义的湿地，由于总磷（TP）含量过高（1995年至2004年每年平均147吨）和平均TP浓度升高，其本地动植物已经发生了重大变化。尽管使用了16000公顷的雨水处理区，但仍来自农业径流和奥基乔比湖流出的TP（2004年为69μgL〜（-1））。在这里，我们提供了一项长期实验研究的贝叶斯变化点分析，结果表明，超过地表水几何平均TP阈值浓度15μgL〜（-1）会导致藻类，大型植物和大型无脊椎动物组合以及泥沼社区结构。当作为阈值区（12-15μgL〜（-1））呈现时，所有营养级的磷阈值可能更现实和更具保护性，因为必须利用不确定性的估计值来准确定义TP阈值，该阈值随季节和水而变化深度。目前，大沼泽地的大多数内部区域都处于或低于该阈值区域，但是流入结构附近的外部区域（大沼泽国家公园除外）目前正在接受拟议阈值的两倍或三倍。我们的贝叶斯方法用于解决沿养分梯度的生态失衡问题，适用于确定其他水生生态系统的阈值和稳定状态。

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