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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental Science & Technology >Modeling global-scale fate and transport of perfluorooctanoate emitted from direct sources
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Modeling global-scale fate and transport of perfluorooctanoate emitted from direct sources

机译：模拟直接来源排放的全氟辛酸酯的全球命运和运输

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The long-term (1950-2050) global fate of perfluorooctanoate (PFO) is investigated using the global distribution model, GloboPOP. The model is used to test the hypotheses that direct PFO emissions can account for levels observed in the global oceans and that ocean water transport to the Arctic is an important global distribution pathway. The model emission scenarios are derived from historical and projected PFO emissions solely from direct sources. Modeled ocean water concentrations compare favorably to observed PFO concentrations in the world's oceans and thus ocean inventories can be accounted for by direct sources. The model results support the hypothesis that long-range ocean transport of PFO to the Arctic is important and estimate a net PFO influx of approximately 8-23 tons per year flowing into the model's Northern Polar zone in 2005, an amount at least 1 order of magnitude greater than estimated PFO flux to the Arctic from potential indirect sources such as atmospheric transport and degradation of fluorotelomer alcohols. Modeled doubling times of ocean water concentrations in the Arctic between 1975 and 2005 of approximately 7.5-10 years are in good agreement with doubling times of PFO in Arctic biota estimated from monitoring data. The model is further applied to predict future trends in PFO contamination levels using forecasted (2005-2050) direct emissions, including substantial reductions committed to by industry. Modeled ocean water concentrations in zones near to sources decline markedly after 2005, whereas modeled concentrations in the Arctic are predicted to continue to increase until approximately 2030 and show no significant decrease for the remaining 20 years of the model simulation. Since water is the primary exposure medium for Arctic biota, these model results suggest that concentrations in Arctic biota may continue to rise long after direct emissions have been substantially reduced or eliminated.
机译：使用全球分布模型GloboPOP对全氟辛酸（PFO）的长期（1950-2050）全球命运进行了研究。该模型用于检验以下假设的假设：直接PFO排放可以解释全球海洋中观测到的水平，并且海洋水向北极的运输是重要的全球分布路径。模型排放情景仅从直接来源的历史和预期PFO排放中得出。模拟的海水浓度与世界海洋中观测到的PFO浓度相比具有优势，因此可以通过直接来源来解释海洋清单。该模型结果支持以下假设，即PFO到北极的远距离海洋运输很重要，并估计2005年PFO净流入量约为每年8-23吨，流入模型的北极地区，数量至少为1个数量级。潜在的间接来源（如大气迁移和含氟调聚物的降解）向北极的PFO通量估计值要大得多。在1975年至2005年期间，模拟的北极海水浓度加倍时间约为7.5-10年，这与根据监测数据估计的北极生物群中PFO的加倍时间非常吻合。该模型可进一步应用预测的（2005-2050年）直接排放来预测PFO污染水平的未来趋势，包括行业承诺的大幅减少。在2005年之后，靠近源头的区域中的模拟海水浓度明显下降，而预计到2030年左右，北极中的模拟浓度将继续增加，并且在模型模拟的其余20年中不会显示出明显的下降。由于水是北极生物区系的主要暴露介质，因此这些模型结果表明，在直接减少或消除直接排放量之后，北极生物区系中的浓度可能会继续升高。

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