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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental toxicology and chemistry >PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY IN MODELING BIOACCUMULATION FACTORS OF FISH
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PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY IN MODELING BIOACCUMULATION FACTORS OF FISH

机译：鱼的生物富集因子建模中的参数不确定性

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摘要

We quantified the uncertainty due to biota-related parameters in estimated bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) of persistent 6rganic pollutants for fish through Monte Carlo simulations. For this purpose, the bioaccumulation model OMEGA (Optimal Modeling for EcotoxicoloGical Applications) was parameterized based on data from the existing literature, analysis of allometric data, and maximum likelihood estimation. Lipid contents, fractions of food assimilated, the allometric rate exponent, normalized food intakes, respiration and growth dilution rates, and partial mass transfer resistances in water and lipid layers were included as uncertain parameters. The uncertainty in partial resistances was particularly important in the estimation of the rate constants for chemical intake from water by fish. Uncertainties in the fractions of food assimilated and partial water layer resistances from and to food were particularly important in the estimation of the rate constants of chemical intake from food. The uncertainty in the model outcomes for the bioaccumulation factors for fish was a factor of 10 (ratio of 95th and fifth percentile estimates), which was mainly caused by the uncertainty in the lipid fraction. For chemicals with a K_(ow) of 10~3 to 10~6, the uncertainty in the lipid contents of fish accounted for more than 50% of the uncertainty in the estimated bioaccumulation factor. For chemicals with a high K_(ow) (10~7 and higher), the fractions of food assimilated and partial resistances also contributed to uncertainty in the estimated bioaccumulation factor (up to 60%). A case study showed that uncertainty in estimated BAF for nonpersistent substances can be dominated by uncertainty in the rate constants for metabolic transformation.
机译：我们通过蒙特卡洛模拟对鱼类中持久性6种有机污染物的估计生物累积因子（BAF）中的与生物群相关参数的不确定性进行了量化。为此，基于现有文献的数据，异速数据的分析和最大似然估计，对生物蓄积模型OMEGA（生态毒理学应用的最佳模型）进行了参数化。脂质含量，同化食物的分数，异速比指数，归一化食物摄入量，呼吸和生长稀释率以及水和脂质层中的部分传质阻力均作为不确定参数包括在内。在估计鱼类从水中摄入化学物质的速率常数时，部分电阻的不确定性尤为重要。在估计食物中化学物质摄入的速率常数时，食物与食物之间的同化和部分水层阻力的分数不确定性尤其重要。鱼类生物蓄积因子的模型结果不确定性是10的因子（第95和第5个百分位数的估计值之比），这主要是由脂质比例的不确定性引起的。对于K_（ow）为10〜3到10〜6的化学物质，鱼中脂质含量的不确定性占估计生物蓄积因子不确定性的50％以上。对于K_（ow）高（10〜7或更高）的化学物质，食物被吸收的部分和部分抗性也导致估计的生物积累因子（高达60％）不确定。案例研究表明，非持久性物质的估计BAF的不确定性可以由代谢转化速率常数的不确定性决定。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental toxicology and chemistry》 |2011年第2期|p.403-412|共10页
  • 作者

    Mara Hauck; Harrie W.M. Hendriks; Mark A.J. Huijbregts; Ad M.J. Ragas; Dik van de MEENT; A. Jan Hendriks;

  • 作者单位

    Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Radboud University Nijmegen, Nijmegen, The Netherlands;

    Institute for Mathematics, Astrophysics, and Particle Physics, Radboud University Nijmegen, Nijmegen, The Netherlands;

    Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Radboud University Nijmegen, Nijmegen, The Netherlands;

    Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Radboud University Nijmegen, Nijmegen, The Netherlands;

    Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Radboud University Nijmegen, Nijmegen, The Netherlands,National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands;

    Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Radboud University Nijmegen, Nijmegen, The Netherlands;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    parameter uncertainty; bioaccumulation factor; OMEGA model; parameterization; fish;

    机译：参数不确定性生物蓄积系数;OMEGA模型;参数化鱼;

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