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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental toxicology and chemistry >A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF AN ACCELERATED LIFE-TEST MODEL AND A TOXICOKINETICS-BASED MODEL FOR THE ANALYSIS OF PORCELLIO SCABER SURVIVAL DATA
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A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF AN ACCELERATED LIFE-TEST MODEL AND A TOXICOKINETICS-BASED MODEL FOR THE ANALYSIS OF PORCELLIO SCABER SURVIVAL DATA

机译:加速寿命测试模型与基于毒物动力学的模型进行POSCELLIO SCAPER生存数据分析的比较研究

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摘要

Statistical models have long been used for reliability analysis and risk assessment. In the present study, an accelerated life-test model was used to analyze a set of dose-time-response data obtained with the terrestrial isopod Porcellio scaber. Survival data were experimentally obtained by exposing P. scaber to diazinon (a nonpersistent insecticide) at six concentrations between 2 and 11.31 μg/g (toxicant/soil). Survival data are presented on a weekly basis. The accelerated life-test model assumed a log-normal distribution and constant variance across all diazinon concentrations. Model parameters were obtained by maximum likelihood estimation. The accelerated life-test model was compared to a toxicokinetics-based model reported in the literature. Survival predictions made by both models were compared with the observed data. Both the accelerated life-test model and the toxicokinetics-based model underestimated toxicity at a diazinon concentration of 8 μg/g. Overall, however, the accelerated life-test model outperformed the toxicokinetics-based model, with survival predictions closer to the observed data in most cases and a stronger correlation between predicted and observed survivals. However, as a statistical model, the accelerated life-test model did not reveal mechanistic information, and only statistical and distributional interpretations of its model parameters could be made.
机译:统计模型长期以来一直用于可靠性分析和风险评估。在本研究中,使用加速寿命测试模型来分析用陆足等足类Porcellio scaber获得的一组剂量-时间响应数据。通过将P. scaber暴露于浓度在2和11.31μg/ g(有毒物/土壤)之间的二嗪农(一种非持久性杀虫剂)中,可通过实验获得生存数据。每周提供生存数据。加速寿命试验模型假设所有二嗪农浓度均呈对数正态分布,且方差恒定。通过最大似然估计获得模型参数。将加速寿命试验模型与文献中报道的基于毒物动力学的模型进行了比较。将两个模型做出的生存预测与观察到的数据进行比较。加速寿命试验模型和基于毒物动力学的模型均低估了二嗪农浓度为8μg/ g时的毒性。但是,总的来说,加速寿命测试模型的性能优于基于毒物动力学的模型,在大多数情况下,生存预测更接近于观察到的数据,并且预测与观察到的生存之间的相关性更强。但是,作为一种统计模型,加速寿命测试模型无法揭示机械信息,只能对其模型参数进行统计和分布解释。

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