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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental toxicology and chemistry >Predictive Toxicity Models for Chemically Related Substances: A Case Study with Nonionic Alcohol Ethoxylate Surfactant
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Predictive Toxicity Models for Chemically Related Substances: A Case Study with Nonionic Alcohol Ethoxylate Surfactant

机译：化学相关物质的预测性毒性模型：非离子醇乙氧基化表面活性剂的案例研究

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摘要

Predictive toxicity models, including interspecies correlation estimation (ICE) models, are reliable alternatives to animal toxicity testing. The ICE models describe mathematical relationships facilitating toxicity prediction from one surrogate test species to a species of unknown sensitivity. The ICE models were developed from curated aquatic toxicity data for 19 nonionic alcohol ethoxylate (AE) surfactants manufactured through the same process. Comparison of AE-ICE predictions with observed values from external validation datasets indicates a reasonable predictive accuracy. Model predictions were also closer to observed values than predictions from previously published ICE models for other substance groups. Comparison of acute fifth percentile hazard concentrations (HC5s) from species sensitivity distributions enhanced with AE-ICE predictions with chronic HC5s published elsewhere produced an acute-to-chronic ratio of 5, which was used to estimate chronic HC5s. With both acute and chronic HC5s for 14 AE substances, regressions were made relative to their respective liposome-water partitioning coefficients (log K-lipw), resulting in HC5-log K-lipw relationships useful in estimating HC5s for AE substances with known composition but with limited or unavailable toxicity data. The findings from this case study further demonstrate that ICE models are viable alternatives to toxicity testing and could be used as weight of evidence in hazard assessment evaluations. Environ Toxicol Chem 2021;00:1-10. (c) 2021 SETAC
机译：预测毒性模型，包括间隙相关估计（ICE）模型，是动物毒性测试的可靠替代品。冰型模型描述了从一个替代测试物种到一种未知敏感性的物种的毒性预测的数学关系。冰型模型是由通过相同工艺制造的19个非离子醇乙氧基化物（AE）表面活性剂的腌制水生毒性数据。来自外部验证数据集的观察值的AE冰预测的比较表明了合理的预测精度。模型预测也比观察到的值更接近，而不是来自其他物质组的先前公布的ICE模型的预测。从物种敏感性分布的急性五百分位危害浓度（HC5）的比较增强了与其他地方发表的慢性HC5s的AE-Ice预测产生了急性到慢性比例为5，用于估计慢性HC5。对于14 AE物质的急性和慢性HC5s，相对于它们各自的脂质体 - 水分配系数（LOG K-LIPW）进行回归，导致HC5-对LIPW的关系可用于估计具有已知组合物的AE物质的HC5s但是有限或无法使用的毒性数据。本例研究的结果进一步证明了冰型模型是可行的毒性测试的替代品，可用作危害评估评估中的证据的重量。环境毒素化学2021; 00：1-10。 （c）2021 Setac

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