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首页> 外文期刊>Environmetrics >Investigating the association between late spring Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures and U.S. Gulf Coast precipitation extremes with focus on Hurricane Harvey
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Investigating the association between late spring Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures and U.S. Gulf Coast precipitation extremes with focus on Hurricane Harvey

机译：调查春末墨西哥湾海表温度与美国墨西哥湾沿岸极端降水之间的关系，重点是哈维飓风

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摘要

Hurricane Harvey brought extreme levels of rainfall to the Houston, Texas, area over a 7-day period in August 2017, resulting in catastrophic flooding that caused loss of human life and damage to personal property and public infrastructure. In the wake of this event, there has been interest in understanding the degree to which this event was unusual and estimating the probability of experiencing a similar event in other locations. Additionally, researchers have aimed to better understand the ways in which the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) is associated with precipitation extremes in this region. This work addresses all of these issues through the development of a multivariate spatial extreme value model. Our analysis indicates that warmer GoM SSTs are associated with higher precipitation extremes in the western Gulf Coast region during hurricane season and that the precipitation totals observed during Hurricane Harvey are less unusual based on the warm GoM SST in 2017. As SSTs in the GoM are expected to steadily increase over the remainder of this century, this analysis suggests that western Gulf Coast locations may experience more severe precipitation extremes during hurricane season.
机译：2017年8月，哈维飓风在7天的时间内为得克萨斯州休斯敦带来了极大的降雨，造成了灾难性洪灾，造成人员伤亡，个人财产和公共基础设施损坏。在此事件之后，人们有兴趣了解此事件的不寻常程度，并估计在其他位置发生类似事件的可能性。此外，研究人员旨在更好地了解墨西哥湾（GoM）的海表温度（SST）与该地区极端降水的关系。这项工作通过开发多元空间极值模型解决了所有这些问题。我们的分析表明，在飓风季节，较热的GoM SST与飓风季节期间墨西哥湾沿岸西部地区的极端极端降水有关，并且基于2017年的GoM SST温暖，在哈维飓风期间观测到的降水总量不那么罕见。为了在本世纪剩余时间内稳定增长，该分析表明，墨西哥湾沿岸西部地区在飓风季节可能会遇到更严重的极端降水。

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