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Estimating the undetected burden of influenza hospitalizations in children

机译：估算儿童流感住院未发现的负担

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During the 2004—2005 influenza season two independent influenza surveillance systems operated simultaneously in three United States counties. The New Vaccine Surveillance Network (NVSN) prospectively enrolled children hospitalized for respiratory symptoms/fever and tested them using culture and RT-PCR. The Emerging Infections Program (EIP) and a similar clinical-laboratory surveillance system identified hospitalized children who had positive influenza tests obtained as part of their usual medical care. Using data from these systems, we applied capture-recapture analyses to estimate the burden of influenza related-hospitalizations in children aged ＜ 5 years. During the 2004-2005 influenza season the influenza-related hospitalization rate estimated by capture-recapture analysis was 8·6/10000 children aged ＜ 5 years. When compared to this estimate, the sensitivity of the prospective surveillance system was 69 % and the sensitivity of the clinical-laboratory based system was 39%. In the face of limited resources and an increasing need for influenza surveillance, capture-recapture analysis provides better estimates than either system alone.
机译：在2004-2005年流感季节期间，两个独立的流感监测系统在美国三个县同时运行。新疫苗监视网络（NVSN）预先招募了因呼吸道症状/发烧住院的儿童，并使用培养和RT-PCR对他们进行了测试。新兴感染计划（EIP）和类似的临床实验室监控系统可确定住院的儿童，他们的流感检出呈阳性，这是他们日常医疗保健的一部分。利用来自这些系统的数据，我们应用了捕获-捕获分析来估计5岁以下儿童中与流感相关的住院治疗的负担。在2004-2005年流感季节，通过捕获-再捕获分析估计的流感相关住院率为8·6/10000岁以下5岁以下的儿童。与该估计值进行比较时，前瞻性监视系统的敏感性为69％，基于临床实验室的系统的敏感性为39％。面对有限的资源和对流感监测的不断增长的需求，捕获-捕获分析比单独使用这两种系统提供的估计值更好。

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