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Streetlights and shadows: searching for the keys to adaptive decision making

机译：路灯和阴影：寻找自适应决策的关键

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摘要

Streetlights and Shadows (Klein 2009) is designed to debunk 11 commonly held claims about how to make decisions. The position of the author, Gary Klein, is that common strategies for decision-making are not adequate when one has to tackle complex situations. The initial (and closing) analogy revolves around the cones and rods in the makeup of our eye: during daylight we use our cones but during the night they are useless and we need to use our rods. The cones are the streetlights and are used for simple well-defined tasks. We use the rods when we operate in the shadows, on the boundaries of what is simple and well defined, in complex situations. Klein's point is that our decision-making needs to be similarly differentiated. The 11 claims analysed in the book revolve around how to make better or more effective decisions. These include following procedures, using logic and statistics, gathering more information or having a leader establish common ground at the outset of a task. The claims discussed through the book are the top 10 rated strategies taken from a series of surveys conducted by Klein and his collaborators. Each chapter of the book explores one of the claims, acknowledging why it is useful in normal situations (in the streetlight) and why it needs modification or replacement if it is to be applied to complex situations (the shadows). The replacement claims are supported by case studies and built from the body of knowledge on naturalistic decision making (NDM) which has been developed over the past two decades. The case studies are interesting in both their scope and the level of insight each provides to either refute the initial claim or support the replacement claims. Case studies vary from aviation accidents and near misses, to military training exercises, global financial successes and failures, as well as personal stories.
机译：Streetlights and Shadows（Klein 2009）旨在揭穿11种常见的关于如何做出决策的主张。作者加里·克莱因（Gary Klein）的立场是，当人们必须应对复杂的情况时，通用的决策策略并不足够。最初的（和闭合的）类比围绕着我们的眼睛的视锥细胞和视杆旋转：在白天，我们使用视锥细胞，而在晚上，它们是无用的，我们需要使用视视杆。视锥细胞是路灯，用于定义明确的简单任务。当我们在阴影中，在复杂情况下以简单且清晰定义的边界进行操作时，我们会使用这些标尺。克莱因的观点是，我们的决策需要进行类似的区分。书中分析的11项主张围绕如何做出更好或更有效的决定。其中包括以下程序，使用逻辑和统计数据，收集更多信息或让领导者在任务开始时建立共同点。本书所讨论的主张是Klein及其合作者进行的一系列调查中获得的最高评分的10条策略。该书的每一章都探讨了其中的一种说法，并承认了为什么在正常情况下（在路灯下）有用，以及为什么要将其应用于复杂情况下（阴影）需要修改或更换。替代要求得到案例研究的支持，并基于过去二十年来发展起来的自然主义决策知识（NDM）。案例研究在其范围和洞察力方面都很有趣，每个案例研究都提供了驳斥初始索赔或支持替代索赔的能力。案例研究不尽相同，从航空事故和未遂事故到军事训练演习，全球金融成功与失败以及个人故事。

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  • 来源
    《Ergonomics》 |2014年第12期|1934-1935|共2页
  • 作者

    Timothy Neville;

  • 作者单位

    University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, Australia The Defence Science and Technology Organisation, Canberra, Australia;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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