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首页> 外文期刊>Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science >Simulating tidal and storm surge hydraulics with a simple 2D inertia based model, in the Humber Estuary, U.K
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Simulating tidal and storm surge hydraulics with a simple 2D inertia based model, in the Humber Estuary, U.K

机译：在英国的汉伯河口，使用简单的基于2D惯性的模型来模拟潮汐和风暴潮水力

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The hydraulic modelling of tidal estuarine environments has been largely limited to complex 3D models that are computationally expensive. This makes them unsuitable for applications which make use of live data to make realear time forecasts, such as the modelling of storm surge propagation and associated flood inundation risks. To address this requirement for a computationally efficient method a reduced complexity, depth-integrated 2D storage cell model (Lisflood-FP) has been applied to the Humber Estuary, UK. The capability of Lisflood-FP to reproduce the tidal heights of the Humber Estuary has been shown by comparing modelled and observed tidal stage heights over a period of a week. The feasibility of using the Lisflood-FP model to forecast flood inundation risk from a storm surge is demonstrated by reproducing the major storm surge that struck the UK East Coast and Humber Estuary on 5 December 2013. Results show that even for this 2013 extreme event the model is capable of reproducing the hydraulics and tidal levels of the estuary. Using present day flood defences and observed flooding extents, the modelled flood inundation areas produced by the model were compared, showing agreement in most areas and illustrating the model's potential as a now-casting early warning system when driven by publically available data, and in near real-time. The Lisflood-FP model used was incorporated into the CAESAR-Lisflood GUI, with the calibration and verification of the estuarine hydraulics reported herein being a key step in creating an estuary evolution model, capable of operating in the decadal to century timescales that are presently underrepresented in estuarine predictive capability, and ultimately developing a model to predict the evolution of flood risk over the longer term. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：潮汐河口环境的水力建模在很大程度上已限制于复杂的3D模型，而这些模型在计算上是昂贵的。这使得它们不适合使用实时数据进行实时/近时预测的应用程序，例如风暴潮传播和相关洪水泛滥风险的建模。为了满足对计算有效方法的这一要求，降低了复杂性，将深度集成的2D存储单元模型（Lisflood-FP）应用于英国的汉伯河口。 Lisflood-FP再现亨伯河口潮汐高度的能力已通过比较一周内模拟和观察到的潮汐阶段高度得到了证明。重现于2013年12月5日袭击英国东海岸和亨伯河口的主要风暴潮，证明了使用Lisflood-FP模型预测风暴潮造成的洪水淹没风险的可行性。结果表明，即使对于这一2013年的极端事件，该模型能够再现河口的水力和潮汐水平。使用当今的洪水防御措施和观测到的洪水范围，对模型产生的洪水泛滥区域进行了比较，显示出大多数地区的一致性，并说明了在可用公开数据驱动下和临近时该模型作为现浇预警系统的潜力。即时的。所使用的Lisflood-FP模型已合并到CAESAR-Lisflood GUI中，此处报告的对河口水力学的校准和验证是创建河口演化模型的关键步骤，该模型能够在目前代表性不足的十年至世纪的时间范围内运行在河口的预测能力方面，最终开发出一个模型来预测洪水风险的长期发展。 （C）2015 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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