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首页> 外文期刊>Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science >Water diversion and sea-level rise: Potential threats to freshwater supplies in the Changjiang River estuary
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Water diversion and sea-level rise: Potential threats to freshwater supplies in the Changjiang River estuary

机译：调水和海平面上升：长江口对淡水供应的潜在威胁

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摘要

The densely-populated mega-city of Shanghai relies increasingly on freshwater from the Changjiang estuary (70% now). However, this strategy is facing potential threats due to extensive water diversion in the lower Changjiang basin and future sea-level rise. Given this, the present study evaluates the ability of Shanghai to source its water from the estuary, especially in the dry season. Flow <15,000 m(3) s(-1), which occurs for ca. 50% of dry seasons, represents the threshold for salinity 0.45 psu (chloride 250 mg/L) above which the estuary is unusable for freshwater. Correlating discharge and salinity, maximum salinity and related time duration, and taking the future water diversions and sea-level rise into consideration, we extrapolated salinity events into the future at intervals of 10 years until 2040. We estimate that water diversions of 56.2 x 10(9) m(3) (1800 m(3) s(-1)), 59.2 x 109 m(3) (1900 m(3) s(-1)) and 61.3 x 109 m(3) (2000 m(3) s(-1)) will occur in 2020, 2030 and 2040, and a rise of sea level of 0.12 m by 2040 (from 2010), equivalent 506 m(3) s(-1), ca. 19.4% of the total reducing discharge of 2040 into the estuary (ca. 28% projected to the worst case of February of 2040). Based on scenario building, the pattern of salinity distribution would remain >0.45 for 20-65, 75-90 and 120-128 days (in 2020, 2030, and 2040, respectively), for extreme low-flow conditions. These periods exceed the present 68-day maximum freshwater storage in Qing-caosha reservoir, which is meant to secure freshwater for Shanghai in the future. Urgently countermeasures are needed to secure the Shanghai's water in the future. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：上海人口稠密的大城市越来越依赖长江口的淡水（目前占70％）。但是，由于长江下游流域的大量调水和未来海平面的上升，该策略正面临潜在的威胁。鉴于此，本研究评估了上海从河口（特别是在旱季）取水的能力。流量<15,000 m（3）s（-1），大约发生于50％的干燥季节代表盐度阈值0.45 psu（氯化物250 mg / L），高于该阈值，河口不可用于淡水。关联排放和盐度，最大盐度和相关的持续时间，并考虑到未来的引水量和海平面上升，我们以20年为间隔的10年时间推断未来的盐分事件。我们估计，引水量为56.2 x 10 （9）m（3）（1800 m（3）s（-1）），59.2 x 109 m（3）（1900 m（3）s（-1））和61.3 x 109 m（3）（2000 m （3）s（-1））将出现在2020年，2030年和2040年，到2040年（自2010年）起，海平面将上升0.12 m，相当于506 m（3）s（-1），ca。 2040年进入河口的减少排放总量的19.4％（预计2040年2月最坏的情况约为28％）。根据情景构建，在极端低流量条件下，盐度分布模式在20-65天，75-90天和120-128天（分别在2020年，2030年和2040年）中将保持> 0.45。这些时期超过了青草沙水库目前最大的68天淡水存储量，这是为了将来确保上海的淡水安全。迫切需要采取对策，以确保将来上海的水安全。 （C）2014 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science》 |2015年第5期|52-60|共9页
  • 作者

    Li Maotian; Chen Zhongyuan; Finlayson Brian; Wei Taoyuan; Chen Jing; Wu Xiaodan; Xu Hao; Webber Michael; Barnett Jon; Wang Mark;

  • 作者单位

    E China Normal Univ, State Key Lab Estuarine & Coastal Res, Shanghai 200062, Peoples R China;

    E China Normal Univ, State Key Lab Estuarine & Coastal Res, Shanghai 200062, Peoples R China;

    Univ Melbourne, Dept Resource Management & Geog, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia;

    E China Normal Univ, State Key Lab Estuarine & Coastal Res, Shanghai 200062, Peoples R China;

    E China Normal Univ, State Key Lab Estuarine & Coastal Res, Shanghai 200062, Peoples R China;

    E China Normal Univ, Dept Geog, Shanghai 200062, Peoples R China;

    E China Normal Univ, Dept Geog, Shanghai 200062, Peoples R China;

    Univ Melbourne, Dept Resource Management & Geog, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia;

    Univ Melbourne, Dept Resource Management & Geog, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia;

    Univ Melbourne, Dept Resource Management & Geog, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    salinity; discharge; water diversion; sea-level rise; the Changjiang estuary; water supply;

    机译：盐度;流量;调水;海平面上升;长江口;供水;

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