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首页> 外文期刊>Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science >Sea-level rise and other influences on decadal-scale salinity variability in a coastal plain estuary
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Sea-level rise and other influences on decadal-scale salinity variability in a coastal plain estuary

机译：海平面上升和沿海平原河口年代际盐度变异性的其他影响

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The response of salinity in the Delaware Estuary to climatic variations is determined using statistical models and long-term (1950-present) records of salinity from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Haskin Shellfish Research Laboratory. The statistical models include non-parametric terms and are robust against autocorrelated and heteroscedastic errors. After using the models to adjust for the influence of streamflow and seasonal effects on salinity, several locations in the estuary show significant upward trends in salinity. Insignificant trends are found at locations that are normally upstream of the salt front. The models indicate a positive correlation between rising sea levels and increasing residual salinity, with salinity rising from 2.5 to 4.4 per meter of sea-level rise. These results are consistent with results from 1D and dynamical models. Wind stress also appears to play some role in driving salinity variations, consistent with its effect on vertical mixing and Ekman transport between the estuary and the ocean. The results suggest that continued sea-level rise in the future will cause salinity to increase regardless of any change in streamflow. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：特拉华河口盐度对气候变化的响应是使用统计模型和美国地质调查局和Haskin贝类研究实验室的长期盐度记录（1950年至今）确定的。统计模型包括非参数项，并且对自相关误差和异方差误差具有鲁棒性。在使用模型调整流量和季节性影响对盐度的影响后，河口的几个位置显示出盐度的显着上升趋势。在通常位于盐锋上游的位置发现了微不足道的趋势。这些模型表明，海平面上升与残留盐分增加之间存在正相关关系，盐度从每米海平面上升2.5上升到4.4。这些结果与一维和动力学模型的结果一致。风应力似乎在驱动盐度变化中也起着一定作用，这与其对河口与海洋之间的垂直混合和埃克曼运输的影响一致。结果表明，不管水流如何变化，未来海平面的持续上升都会使盐度增加。 （C）2015 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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