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首页> 外文期刊>Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science >Predicting estuarine use patterns of juvenile fish with Generalized Linear Models
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Predicting estuarine use patterns of juvenile fish with Generalized Linear Models

机译：用广义线性模型预测幼鱼的河口利用方式

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摘要

Statistical models are key for estimating fish distributions based on environmental variables, and validation is generally advocated as indispensable but seldom applied. Generalized Linear Models were applied to distributions of juvenile Solea solea, Solea senegalensis, Platichthys flesus and Dicentrarchus labrax in response to environmental variables throughout Portuguese estuaries. Species-specific Delta models with two sub-models were used: Binomial (presence/absence); Gamma (density when present). Models were fitted and tested on separate data sets to estimate the accuracy and robustness of predictions. Temperature, salinity and mud content in sediment were included in most models for presence/ absence; salinity and depth in most models for density (when present). In Binomial models (presence/ absence), goodness-of-fit, accuracy and robustness varied concurrently among species, and fair to high accuracy and robustness were attained for all species, in models with poor to high goodness-of-fit. But in Gamma models (density when present), goodness-of-fit was not indicative of accuracy and robustness. Only for Platichthys flesus were Gamma and also coupled Delta models (density) accurate and robust, despite some moderate bias and inconsistency in predicted density. The accuracy and robustness of final density estimations were defined by the accuracy and robustness of the estimations of presence/absence and density (when present) provided by the sub-models. The mismatches between goodness-of-fit, accuracy and robustness of positive density models, as well as the difference in performance of presence/absence and density models demonstrated the importance of validation procedures in the evaluation of the value of habitat suitability models as predictive tools.
机译：统计模型是根据环境变量估算鱼类分布的关键，通常提倡验证是必不可少的，但很少应用。响应于整个葡萄牙河口的环境变量，将广义线性模型应用于少年Solea solea，Solea senegalensis，flatesus flesus和Dicentrarchus labrax的分布。使用具有两个子模型的特定于物种的Delta模型：二项式（存在/不存在）；伽玛（存在时的密度）。对模型进行拟合并在单独的数据集上进行测试，以估计预测的准确性和鲁棒性。在大多数模型中，沉积物的温度，盐度和泥浆含量都包含/不包含在内。大多数密度模型（如果存在）中的盐度和深度。在二项式模型（存在/不存在）中，拟合优度，准确性和鲁棒性在物种之间同时发生变化，并且在拟合优度从低到高的模型中，所有物种都达到了中到高精度和鲁棒性。但是在Gamma模型中（存在密度时），拟合优度并不表示准确性和鲁棒性。尽管在预测密度上存在一定程度的偏差和不一致，但仅对斜纹肌的腓直肌而言，Gamma以及耦合的Delta模型（密度）是准确而稳健的。最终密度估计的准确性和鲁棒性由子模型提供的存在/不存在和密度（如果存在）估计的准确性和鲁棒性定义。正密度模型的拟合优度，准确性和鲁棒性之间的不匹配以及存在/不存在和密度模型的性能差异证明了验证程序在评估栖息地适宜性模型作为预测工具的价值中的重要性。

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  • 来源
    《Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science》 |2013年第20期|64-74|共11页
  • 作者

    R.P. Vasconcelos; O. Le Pape; M.J. Costa; H.N. Cabral;

  • 作者单位

    Centro de Oceanografia, Faculdade de Ciencias da Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal;

    UMR 985 ESE, Agrocampus Ouest, lnra 65 rue de St Brieuc CS 84215, F-35042 Rennes, France;

    Centro de Oceanografia, Faculdade de Ciencias da Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal;

    Centro de Oceanografia, Faculdade de Ciencias da Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal,Departamento de Biologia Animal, Faculdade de Ciencias, Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    nursery grounds; modelling; prediction; environmental conditions; portugal;

    机译：苗圃场;造型;预测;环境条件;葡萄牙;

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