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首页> 外文期刊>Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science >Using rigorous selection criteria to investigate marine range shifts
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Using rigorous selection criteria to investigate marine range shifts

机译：使用严格的选择标准来调查海洋范围变化

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We reassess whether range shifts in marine organisms are occurring in a direction predicted by causation due to climate using two different methods: a global meta-analysis and a regional analysis of museum records focussing on marine molluscs. Globally we used rigorous selection criteria to investigate studies describing range shifts in marine organisms, including exclusion of single-species studies and those that inferred range shifts through shifting abundance. For each species meeting these criteria (311 species from 13 studies), the distance in kilometres moved per year was calculated, and life history characteristics such as mobility, habitat, dispersal potential and trophic level were recorded to assess if these were linked to the shifts. We also examined the potential correlation between changing sea surface temperatures and range shifts. Regionally we analysed the intertidal mollusc collection of the Australian Museum and Museum of Victoria and consulted with mollusc experts to determine if museum records could be used to detect range shifts in marine invertebrates. The global meta-analysis showed that individual species shifted on average 8.9 km polewards per year. Range shifts were not significantly related to temperature change or life history characteristics with the exception of intertidal and near-shore subtidal fauna showing poleward shifts (6.8 and 14.3 km per decade, respectively) and shelf fauna showing a slight equatorial shift (2.7 km per decade). Our regional analysis showed that 54 of the 634 mollusc species examined shifted their range into or out of the well-surveyed Sydney region. However, closer examination by mollusc experts revealed that the evidence for these shifts was unreliable, and we conclude that caution is required when using museum records in range shift studies. Overall, our study supports previous research showing a poleward shift in response to climate change, although this is an order of magnitude less than values reported in the only other meta-analysis on marine range shifts, possibly owing to the strict selection criteria applied here.
机译：我们使用两种不同的方法来重新评估海洋生物的范围变化是否正在按照气候因果关系预测的方向发生：全球荟萃分析和以海洋软体动物为中心的博物馆记录区域分析。在全球范围内，我们使用严格的选择标准来研究描述海洋生物范围变化的研究，包括排除单一物种的研究以及通过变化的丰度推断范围变化的研究。对于满足这些标准的每个物种（来自13个研究的311个物种），计算了每年移动的距离（以公里为单位），并记录了生活史特征（例如迁移率，栖息地，传播潜力和营养水平），以评估它们是否与变化有关。我们还检查了海面温度变化和距离变化之间的潜在相关性。在区域上，我们分析了澳大利亚博物馆和维多利亚博物馆的潮间带软体动物收藏，并与软体动物专家进行了协商，以确定博物馆记录是否可用于检测海洋无脊椎动物的距离变化。全球荟萃分析表明，单个物种每年平均向北极移动8.9公里。距离变化与温度变化或生活史特征没有显着相关，除了潮间带和近岸的潮下动物区系显示极移（分别为每十年6.8和14.3 km）和架子动物区系略有赤道偏移（每十年2.7 km） ）。我们的区域分析表明，在634个软体动物中，有54个物种的分布范围移入或移出了悉尼地区。但是，软体动物专家仔细检查后发现，这些变化的证据并不可靠，我们得出结论，在范围变化研究中使用博物馆记录时，需要谨慎行事。总体而言，我们的研究支持先前的研究，该研究表明对气候变化的响应发生了极移，尽管这比唯一的其他有关海洋范围变化的荟萃分析所报告的值小一个数量级，这可能是由于此处采用了严格的选择标准。

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